• $SPY and $QQQ have been consolidating in historically tight ranges for 4-5 months, reflected by multi-year tight Bollinger Bands. A violent move is overdue. 4

• $MSFT daily chart shows a bounce off recent lows with a confirmed stick today. A small gap in the 422 area is the first resistance level on my radar. 1
• $CEG daily chart shows follow-through from a confirmed reversal.

• Stablecoin market disruption is imminent. Tether alone booked $10 BILLION profit in 9 months in 2025 from $USDT, largely due to $137 BILLION in US Treasury holdings, making it the 17th largest US debt holder. [Reference [1]](https://x.

• Market sentiment has fundamentally shifted; what once created major macro headlines now barely registers, demanding closer watch on underlying currents 1.

• China’s regulators verbally advised large commercial banks to control US Treasury bond holdings, restricting new purchases and suggesting gradual reduction for high-holding banks. This aims to diversify risk, mitigating market volatility and concentration concerns [1](https://x.

• Prediction markets consistently identify skilled participants, with some showing uncanny accuracy on events like the halftime show 1. Prediction markets themselves emerge as the ultimate winners in major events [7](https://x.

• FSD V14 marks a significant leap, transitioning from merely “usable” to “very good.” Personal experience shows 96% of over 1300 miles completed by FSD, with safety concerns replaced by efficiency as the primary reason for rare human interventions [11](https://x.

• A Fed–Treasury accord would usher in predictable issuance, less repo stress, and fewer policy shocks, resulting in lower term premium and easier financial conditions, which are generally asset-supportive 13.

• Key market movements: Bitcoin disproved year-end targets, Gold and Silver grabbed headlines, the initial AI boom sprinted harder than expected, the U.S. dollar saw one of its most violent reversals in decades, and software stocks hit oversold levels. [1](https://x.

• Near market bottoms, specific indicators or patterns emerge 1.
• The current market downturn is distinct from the “crash” observed in ‘21-‘22 13.