📈 Market Trends & Sentiment

  • Cyclicals outperforming YTD is no coincidence, signaling a ‘Run it Hot’ shift. 1
  • Market futures lack panic despite widespread X discussions on tariffs and Greenland; focus on Tuesday’s open. 10
  • Silver staged an unexpected 270% surge after a 13-year consolidation break, initiated by a single green monthly candle. 13
  • The NQmain and ESmain futures tanking on Monday, despite U.S. market holidays, reflects a recurring pattern familiar to traders. 19

🌍 Geopolitics & Market Impact

  • Greenland tariff war impact is hitting the market, causing U.S. big caps to tank. Renewed tariff wars pile onto last week’s accumulated market risks. 2
  • A ’tariff war playbook’ suggests President Trump ambiguously signals tariffs on Friday, causing market dips, followed by official implementation of substantial tariffs (often >25%) on Saturday. 4

💡 Investment & Trading Strategy

  • Market timing for exact tops/bottoms is a noisy 30% pursuit; true gains come from riding the middle 70% of a trend. 3
  • Chasing quick riches in meme stocks like $GME, $AMC, $BYND often results in losses; steady wealth accumulation comes from consistently investing in S&P 500. 14
  • $NVO exhibits a ‘SRIRACHA SETUP,’ already up +32% since breakout, akin to $PLTR’s 2024 run. 15
  • Go long on $HOOD. 20

💻 Semiconductors & AI Supply Chain

  • Nvidia Rubin-based AI servers commence shipping in August 2026 (small volume), with production transition smoother due to shared architecture with Nvidia GB-based systems. 5
  • TSMC Arizona plans 4 to 6 additional fabs on newly acquired land, raising its total to over ten, accelerating existing projects. 6
  • Confusion exists over pressure for South Korea to build U.S. memory fabs, as SK Hynix already plans an ultra-large-scale front-end memory fab in Arizona, surpassing any in mainland Korea. 7
  • U.S. goal of 40% domestic chip self-sufficiency relies on more than just Taiwan, with U.S. chip giants and other nations integral to the national security priority. 8
  • AI chip demand remains robust in 2026, but persistent shortages of high-end glass fiber cloth (critical for advanced circuit boards/packaging) pose a core constraint. 9
  • AI fuels strong optical communications demand, leading to a shortage and price hike in upstream indium phosphide (InP) substrates. IET, Visual Photonics, and LandMark are beneficiaries. 16
  • Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will be in Taiwan from Jan. 29–31 to finalize ‘Constellation’ HQ, attend year-end banquet, and host a ‘Trillion-Dollar Banquet’ for AI supply chain partners. 18

💰 Macroeconomics

  • The ‘Greenspan-like mind’ comment suggests a preference for a Fed candidate open to rate cuts/holding hikes even during economic expansion. 12
  • My prior prediction of Q4 GDP growth at 4.5% was accurate. Q1 economy is likely to exceed expectations due to: 1. Stronger-than-seasonal December exports continuing into Q1; 2. Proactive, front-loaded fiscal policy; 3. Partial completion of 2025’s 5% target in Q4 shifted some work and data into Q1. 17

🤖 AI Development & Career

  • In the AI era, taking initiative pays off: personally developed data scrapers received high praise and led to presentation invitations, highlighting the value of quickly solving user problems. 11