Despite the MLK Day holiday, US major companies on Frankfurt’s exchange are already feeling the pinch from Greenland tariffs, with $MSFT down -2.3%, $GOOGL-2.3%, $NVDA-2%, $TSLA-1.8%, $CRM-2.75%, and $UNH-2.34%引用[3].
German Chancellor Merz’s move to avoid tariff escalation by seeking solutions and meeting Trump signals a preemptive backing down 引用[15].
Historical data points to a high probability: 3 out of the last 4 “red Januarys” have been followed by “red Februarys” for $SPX, featuring steep peak-to-trough drops of -8.9%, -10.5%, and -6.7%. The 6,845.50 level is key for this January to close green 引用[16].
The current market slump is complex; while TSMC’s strong earnings offered a brief bounce, concerns around AI monetization persist 引用[17].
Last year’s Deepseek market reaction, which saw $SPX briefly dip -1.5% before quickly recovering within 4 days, might provide a blueprint for market dynamics this week 引用[30].
Microsoft ($MSFT) holds over $102B in cash, significantly outpacing peers. This war chest provides unmatched flexibility for multi-year AI capex and critical infrastructure lock-in 引用[12].
The DeepMind CEO flagged a perpetual chip shortage; global compute capacity is nowhere near AI demand. This drives $GOOGL and $AMZN to develop custom silicon, aligning with $NVDA and $AMD, as AI users could exceed 5B by 2030. Token production is the new battleground 引用[19].
Big tech players like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft boast such diversified business models and investments that they effectively function as their own ETFs引用[20].
OpenAI’s internal data reveals AI revenue scales almost one-for-one with compute. A ~10x power increase (from ~0.2 GW to ~1.9 GW) correlates with revenue growth from ~$2B to ~$20B, implying $10.5B revenue per GW引用[23].
$GOOGL’s Gemini API calls have more than doubled to 85B, with subscribers hitting ~8M. This signifies accelerating enterprise adoption and integration into core workflows 引用[27].
Full adoption of FSD and Robotaxi technology promises a substantial drop in road rage, as autonomous systems are devoid of human emotion 引用[22].
Relative to $SLV, $QQQ trades at October 2016 levels, $SPY at September 2013 levels, and $GLD at November 2012 levels. These are extreme ratio divergences 引用[24].
If a market 1% dip causes a portfolio to bleed 3% or even 5%, it’s time for a portfolio audit. Consider adding low-beta stocks and diversified ETFs to bolster stability 引用[26].
Recommending Incyte ($INCY), a rare “low beta + growth” pharma stock. It offers defensive healthcare exposure but isn’t a traditional stable defensive play, despite its early reliance on a core drug 引用[25].
A Chinese case exposes state monopoly inefficiencies in shooting sports procurement. A coach faced a 300万 yuan fine and 10-year sentence for selling 4万 yuan worth of imported accessories over 8 years, highlighting rigid regulations classifying common parts as smuggled weapons 引用[5].