🚀 Market Insights & Technical Analysis

  • A brief flush lower for $SPX is likely near its 20-week moving average, aligning with mid-year seasonality 1.
  • $AAPL, $MSFT, $NVDA recently approached bear market territory (a -20% ATH peak-to-trough move) at their lows 17. Notably, $AAPL recorded one of its lowest daily RSI values in its 41-year history 30.
  • Post-market, $NFLX is trading 26% below its 200-day SMA, a rare event (only 3 occurrences since GFC in 2011, 2018, 2022) historically signaling buying opportunities 5. This parallels $META’s period of extreme investor disfavor; a $70 correction could present a generational buying level 10.
  • $TSLA often moves independently, decoupling from broader market trends 11.

🌍 Macro Economy & Geopolitics

  • Central banks, exemplified by Poland’s 150-ton purchase, are aggressively accumulating gold, representing 15% of the annual 1000-ton average (for 2023-2025). This underpins a long-term bullish thesis driven by deglobalization and persistent fiscal expansion 9.
  • Gold and silver face short-term retracement risk due to February options expiry, potential call unwinds, rising 10-year yields, and an extremely low Gold/Silver ratio; buying opportunities are anticipated next week 27. Gold and silver are already diverging as predicted, with silver’s exchange rate showing historical strength at current levels 16.
  • Current restrictive rates are stifling growth. A 100bps rate cut could push U.S. economic growth to 6% or more, indicating an intent to run the economy hot 28.
  • The Supreme Court’s repeated delays in the Trump tariff case, especially amidst the Greenland tariff dispute, are a strategic move to prevent market disruption; procrastination is the preferred tactic 15, 25.
  • A new global era, distinct from the Cold War, is anticipated post-2026, defined by complex struggles involving realism, AI, wealth inequality, and G2 dynamics 18.

💡 Semiconductor Industry

  • Skepticism surrounds SK Hynix’s reported server DDR5 OPM of 70%, with projections reaching 90% in H1. This extremely high operating profit margin seems implausible 26.