geopolitics/China Politics 🇨🇳

  • The severe judgment against Zhang Youxia, equating his political gravity to figures like Guo Boxiong and Xu Caihou, suggests potentially deep-seated issues that undermine the party’s foundation and military leadership. This raises doubts about previous coup rumors, implying they might not be unfounded 1.

Macro Economics/Market Sentiment 🌐

  • Global equity funds saw a massive +$71 billion inflow last week, a +3,450% jump from the previous week’s +$2 billion, coinciding with a -$62 billion outflow from global money market funds, signaling a major rotation into risk assets 5.
  • US large corporate bankruptcies jumped +9% YoY to 749 by December 14, 2025, marking a 15-year peak and the fourth straight annual increase, reflecting a +101% surge since 2022 lows, driven by persistent high interest rates 11.
  • International stocks are seeing massive tailwinds, attracting +$39 billion, or 78% of the +$50 billion YTD net inflows into developed market equity funds, with notable surges into European (+$5 billion) and other regions (+$2 billion) 17.
  • Energy sector rallies, while capable of short bursts, tend to stall when bond markets remain supported, a current market dynamic 3.

Commodity Markets ⛏️

  • A critical bottleneck in copper supply is finally hitting market consciousness, as demand from AI, electrification, and grid infrastructure exacerbates existing deficits 10.
  • Shanghai silver prices spiked to $112/oz, commanding a +$9/oz premium over US prices, indicating a historic physical silver shortage in China 14.
  • Silver trading above its monthly upper Bollinger Band signals exhaustion risk, contradicting the “new paradigm” bullish narrative 12.
  • Tungsten is positioned as a superior short-term play versus copper, given its status as a “strategic critical mineral” 15.

Stock-Specific Analysis & Market Anomalies 📈

  • $AAPL logged 8 consecutive weekly declines, a streak not seen in 30 years since its last 9-week downtrend 2.
  • $BTC needs a 42% surge within 7 days to hit prior All-Time Highs by end of January, challenging recent bullish predictions 4.
  • The Nasdaq registered its highest count of new 52-week highs since 2024, signaling strong internal market breadth that could precede another leg up 8.
  • $KO weekly chart flashes an imminent All-Time High breakout signal 13.
  • Representative Kevin Hern, a House Health Subcommittee member, offloaded his entire $500,000 stake in #UNH, signaling potential shifts for United Health 18.
  • #SOFI prepares for January 30 earnings with robust growth (Revenue +38% YoY, Members +35% YoY, Loans +25% YoY, Financial Services +37% YoY) despite a 5-month sideways stock performance, suggesting a potential valuation disconnect 19.
  • My $TSLA conviction remains strong; current smooth progress leaves little to discuss. Missed scaling in at $415, and $TSLA still commands 16% of my portfolio, topping out at 20% 9.

Tech Industry/AI Strategy 🤖

  • In the 2026 humanoid robot landscape, $PLTR and $PATH are positioned as fleet traffic controllers, with $NVDA and $AV also playing pivotal roles 6.
  • $MSFT CEO Satya Nadella’s commentary signals a paradigm shift, effectively calling time on traditional software applications as the primary value layer in an emerging agentic world 16.

Behavioral Finance/Market Psychology 🧠

  • It’s often advantageous when widely disliked companies print fresh All-Time Highs, as emotional biases often prevent market participants from objectively assessing stock price movements 7.