📈 Market Outlook & Technicals

  • SPX dips are consistently bought, raising questions about this pattern’s longevity 1.
  • A bear flag breakout is playing out, signaling pain for Crypto longs 12.
  • Copper shows short-term momentum in Q1, but expect a cool-off in Q2/Q3 as the market is “insanely hot” 17.
  • Silver trading above its monthly upper Bollinger Band indicates exhaustion risk, not strength, contrary to the “new paradigm” narrative 21.
  • Amazon and Meta feel poised for a performance year similar to Google’s last year 20.
  • My copper exposure is via COPX, FCX, and Chile ETF, not futures or CPER 8.
  • I am interested at the $51,000-$52,000 level for potential entry 16.

💡 Investment & Trading Principles

  • Manage your own book by knowing per-trade risk tolerance. Long-term compounding is key; most traders fail without it 2.
  • Small capital isn’t an investment barrier. A simple plan: starting at age 30, invest $500 monthly into an S&P 500 index fund, regardless of stock picking or timing 5.
  • Covered calls are viable only with 100 shares of the underlying; naked calls are not recommended 6.
  • Averaging down often leads to immediate further downside; gravity works against your position 9.
  • Covered calls, when holding underlying stock, primarily risk “selling out” (missing upside). They are a defensive strategy, not for outsized risk-adjusted gains 14.
  • Diversification is crucial; even Buffett makes incorrect stock picks. Net positive returns are the goal, not winning every single trade 15.
  • Investment methods are not right or wrong; only suitable or unsuitable. My suggested approaches may not fit everyone but will find an audience 18.

🚀 Future Tech & Industry Trends

  • Space industry value will eventually dwarf Earth’s total value due to 100,000x energy potential, using <0.000001% of solar energy 3.
  • Tesla’s value surpasses all other car companies combined, driven by autonomous driving tech. This is before Optimus scales to increase global GDP by an order of magnitude 4.
  • In an agentic world, while AI agents perform tasks, human roles will shift to defining permissions, routing system actions, and logging processes 10.

🌍 Macro & Geopolitics

  • Canada’s PM Carney affirms adherence to CUSMA requirements, stating no intention to pursue free trade with China or other non-market economies, implying a capitulation under Trump’s 100% tariff threat 7.
  • The next Fed Chair is expected to be BlackRock’s CIO. Coupled with Trump’s call for 1% interest rates as a requirement for the next Chair, 2026 sets up to be a volatile year 11.
  • China is engaging in the blame game, indicating an evolving geopolitical stance 13.

🧠 Market Psychology

  • Social media repeats the same 20 tickers. By the time retail piles in, the rally is usually mature or over. High engagement correlates with this late-stage entry 19.