📈 Market Outlook & Indices

  • $SPX saw an insane bounce, climbing from 4,800 to 7,000 in under 9 months 3.
  • $QQQ just tagged a new ATH; it was long overdue 26.

💡 Semiconductor Sector Insights

  • $IREN shows signs of an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern 1.
  • Qorvo’s content in the iPhone 18 cycle is projected flat after gains in iPhone 16 and 17. Apple’s modem wins, thanks to sole-sourced envelope trackers, are positive, but cellular iPad wins likely won’t offset. FY27 will see memory pricing hit Qorvo’s Android business harder 16.
  • $WDC, $SNDK, $MU, $STX, and $ASML are all punching new ATHs, ripping big in premarket. These are moonshot plays; just ride the rally 23.
  • $NVDA is flashing signals for a push towards $200 soon 29.
  • $NVDA is currently retesting a key mini blue resistance line. Broader market behavior dictates its next move 30.

🤖 AI & Tech Competition

  • Gokul just body-slammed MediaTek 13.
  • The market is hyper-bullish on MediaTek’s TPU volume. Google is secretly cooking a fully in-house, CoT-designed 2nm TPU project, sidelining both Broadcom and MediaTek. Google’s end game: becoming a legit alternative to NVIDIA 14.
  • Anthropic jacked its 2026 revenue forecast by ~20% to ~$55B, eyeing ~$148B by 2029. But brace for $100B+ in model training costs and a delayed cash-flow breakeven. This flags major implications for $AMZN’s ~20% stake 25.

🌍 Macro & Geopolitics

  • Updated estimates for China’s per capita household balance sheet, based on 2022 data, show assets under 400,000, real estate dropping to 40%, and financial assets topping 60%. Per capita debt hovers around 60,000, translating to a 17% debt ratio. This shift means China’s household balance sheet is now a near mirror image of the US 11.
  • Ultimatum issued. Eyes locked on the Strait of Hormuz 27.

🗓️ Upcoming Earnings Catalyst

  • Wednesday is the week’s breakpoint: Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla kick off big tech earnings. For Meta: What’s the AI ROI on those billions in capex, beyond just ads? For Microsoft: Can Azure sustain its growth? And what’s the deal with AI Copilot? 24.