TSMC shows structural Gross Margin (GM) improvement, holding at 56%+; Hynix surpassed TSMC GM only thrice since 2002 (2017-18 and 2025 cycles). 2
AI cycle remains in early innings; $TSM crushed guidance by ~10% and $ASML nearly doubled expected bookings, indicating continued underestimation of AI capex scale. 3
Expect upcoming hyperscaler earnings ($MSFT, $META) to flag power constraints. 12
$ONDS Optimus drone’s inclusion on the DCMA Blue UAS list streamlines federal contracts, positioning it for DoD and critical infrastructure deployments. 14
$ASML logged record single-quarter bookings for modern EUV, signaling the initial phase of a monumental industrial buildout driven by strong, front-loaded demand. 21
Rates surprisingly stalled their decline post-Fed rate cuts. 5
Market sentiment is flashing extreme greed, with the fear/greed meter at a 4-month high. 18
Geopolitical noise (Trump’s Iran rhetoric) aligns with a weakening dollar, surging gold, silver, oil, and copper, casting doubt on controlled inflation despite ongoing fiscal deficits. 8, 11
A near-zero probability (2.8%) for this cycle’s rate cut implies market pricing for no cut. Focus shifts to Fed’s forward guidance and the dovish potential of future leadership, like Rick Rieder. 16, 22
The S&P 500 crossing 7000 suggests historical precedent for continued gains the following day. 29
Last year’s high-beta darlings like $HOOD and $PLTR are consolidating despite broader market ATHs; approaching their 200-day moving averages, a bounce play could be in order. 7
$MA is trading at April 2025 levels, significantly weaker than $V and $AXP. Watch Mastercard for a potential bounce. 9
$PYPL is plumbing a 9-year low with a 9 forward P/E, screaming undervaluation. A hypothetical Elon Musk acquisition could unlock substantial value by leveraging its half-billion user base. 13
$TSLA earnings forecast: Robotaxi expansion will fall short of Musk’s aggressive guidance, with energy and North America/Europe FSD subscriptions as the key growth levers. Expect Musk to re-emphasize the $LMND insurance partnership to validate FSD safety and economics. 20
Dollar-cost averaging into covered call ETFs offers compelling long-term potential, especially with 10%+ dividend yields that increase with volatility, negating reasons to sell. 15
Maintain portfolio discipline: even for high-conviction plays like Tesla (which has doubled returns), cap position sizing to a maximum of 30%, with current holdings at 16% (targeting 20%). 24