📈 Market Outlook & Strategy

  • An equally weighted S&P 500 lagging the market cap weighted index does not signal a weak market. 1
  • Persistent bearishness during bull markets is a flawed strategy. 2
  • Reaching the 7,000 milestone for $SPX suggests historical odds favor a pullback. 3
  • While S&P 500 hits ATHs, the Dollar Index trades at multi-year lows. 4
  • A stock market bear phase looms. USDJPY appears poised for further declines. 5

🌐 Macroeconomic Trends

  • President Trump’s stance is seen as welcoming a weaker USD, following its worst year in 8 years. 6
  • China’s property crisis persists: new home prices in 70 cities down -0.4% MoM in December and -2.7% YoY. Used home values saw a -0.7% MoM decline, the largest in 15 months, across all 70 major cities. 7
  • US consumer savings are eroding. The personal savings rate dropped -0.2 percentage points in November 2025 to 3.5%, marking its lowest level since October 2022, and the lowest since the 2008 Financial Crisis, excluding the March-October 2022 period. 8

💻 Tech & AI Insights

  • $NVDA and $AMZN involvement in OpenAI funding highlights the AI stack’s consolidation around compute, cloud, and distribution. 9
  • $MSFT earnings hinge on conversion, not just AI demand. Azure capacity relief and sustained Copilot monetization are key indicators for margin expansion amid high spending. 10

🏭 Sector & Stock Deep Dives

  • $INTC is a turnaround play, +10% off its buy zone, poised for a comeback, similar to $AMD. 11
  • $NXT hit its target, up 45% since Jan 12th; potential for a 163 target. 12
  • $INTC bounced back after a 20% pullback (following a 150% surge in six months), as the market eyes China’s threats to invade Taiwan, home to $TSM and the chip industry’s core. 13
  • $ATEYY surged from $131 to $188 (a +43% gain) in two months. 14
  • $TSLA’s ~$1.5T valuation, exceeding the next 26 automakers combined, indicates the market prioritizes autonomy over traditional auto manufacturing. 15