🚀 Original Insights & Deep Dives

🤖 AI/SaaS Market Dynamics

  • The market is lazy, repricing SaaS due to AI disruption narratives, despite limited actual change in business markets 引用[1].
  • Microsoft’s MSFT post-earnings drop fueled a narrative that all software and SaaS face AI investment return issues or total AI displacement 引用[2].
  • The Microsoft trading volume of 85M, equating to ~$36B, reinforces the AI bubble narrative, creating a short-term systematic shock 引用[14].

📊 Stock & Trading Analysis

  • ADBE is a value trap, similar to PYPL, LULU, and CRM, signaling short-term pain but potential for medium-to-long-term recovery, depending on investment horizon 引用[3].
  • Stocks like HOOD (-35% from ATH), PLTR (-30% from ATH), and SOFI (-28% from ATH) are in a “digestion period” after strong prior year performances 引用[4].
  • META would trade significantly above $750 if not for current unfavorable market conditions 引用[6].
  • Avoid FOMO buying META after recent dips at $480 (Apr 2025), $580 (Nov 2025), and $610 (Jan 2026), as the stock is already up $130, or 25%, filling the Oct 2025 gap 引用[15].

☁️ Cloud & AI Infrastructure Outlook

  • MSFT’s earnings are positive for AWS/GCP; AWS has confirmed data center expansion reducing supply constraints, and Google’s powerful TPUs mean less reliance on NVDA Blackwell. Holding AMZN/GOOG with Google price targets $330/$360 引用[5].

mergers_and_acquisitions M&A / AI Strategy

  • AAPL’s rare $2B acquisition of audio startup QAI signals a focus on physical AI use cases involving sound, spatial awareness, and real-world interaction 引用[9].

🎢 Market Volatility

  • Significant volatility across most asset classes, yet equities remain relatively stable for now 引用[10].
  • VIX rising for five consecutive days is uncommon, suggesting a potential shift in market conditions 引用[13].

📈 Market Outlook

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average could rally 50% from this year’s low to next year’s high, aligning with historical averages 引用[11].

🗓️ Market Seasonality

  • Chinese New Year, from February 17th, 2026 to March 3rd, 2026, presents an actionable market alpha for preparation 引用[7].

₿ Crypto Market Perception

  • Buying Bitcoin for safety instead of Gold & Silver highlights a divergent perception of safe-haven assets 引用[8].
  • BTC correlation to QQQ is widening again 引用[16].