- Silver saw a 25% sell-off, but a snapback rally is anticipated. 1
- The gold and silver markets exhibited a textbook blow-off top today. 13
- Today’s nearly $10 trillion swing in precious metals market cap over 24 hours marks a historically significant event. 29
🌍 Macro Market Strategy#
- A long-end rate surge combined with a dollar surge devastates all assets; holding cash is prudent. 10
- Volatility is here. A robust macro framework is vital for disciplined, patient capital allocation. 27
📊 Technical Analysis & Trading Tactics#
- The S&P 500 consistently finds buyers at its 21EMA, signaling a reliable short-term defense. 25
- For $SI, interest is at the prior cup-and-handle breakout point around $81. Not buying today; expect multiple tests during consolidation. 20
- $GC interest zone sits around $4650-$4830. No new buys today; anticipate $4830 to be tested during upcoming consolidation. 22
📈 Market Outlook#
- February hints at downside “fireworks” for $SPY, projecting a 4-5% pullback, distinct from a 2025 tariffs-driven crash. 28
💼 Portfolio Strategy#
- EM exposure, including China, was liquidated. The thesis will be revisited post-weekend. 12
- Market survival pivots on “Structure over Direction.” 16
🏢 Stock Specific Insights#
- $RKT “let it ride” positions stopped out. Re-entered based on 200m and TL pullback. The overhead gap remains a hurdle. 23