🧠 Trading Philosophy & Market Sentiment

  • Price action is paramount; media explanations for market moves are secondary noise Reference [1].
  • Navigating volatile markets requires sticking to one’s own trading plan, filtering out “hit and run” comments Reference [2].
  • Currently, every asset class, from the Dollar and Silver to Space & drones, is competing to be “the trade” Reference [3].
  • Consumer Staples outperformance, observed as the third-best performing sector in January after Energy and Materials, suggests an unhealthy market environment Reference [4].

🔍 Asset-Specific Insights

  • A typical Silver breakout retest could lead to a 60% pullback from its highs, a scenario likely to sideline 70% of participants Reference [5].
  • $AAPL, trading at $259, showed notable strength today, holding firm despite QQQ dipping almost 2% Reference [6].
  • Observing $SNDK turning red, performing a “blow off top dance” in tandem with Silver Reference [7].
  • $NVDA’s Blackwell technology is poised to significantly widen the competitive gap between American frontier models and Chinese open-source AI models Reference [8].
  • $SOFI’s fee-based revenue has hit a record 43% of total sales, indicating growth stems from users increasing their engagement with more internal products and services Reference [9].
  • $BTC appears to be the new dominant trade over $SLV Reference [10].

🌍 Macroeconomic & Global Market Developments

  • Japanese retail investors have significantly reduced bearish US Dollar bets, cutting -$561 million in net short USDJPY positions between Friday and Tuesday, resulting in a -$2.27 billion net short, the smallest in at least a year Reference [11].
  • The US goods trade deficit widened by -$27.6 billion (a 95% increase) in November, reaching -$56.8 billion (the highest since July), marking the largest monthly rise since 1992 Reference [12].

🚀 High-Profile IPO Insights

  • SpaceX is targeting a June IPO, aiming to raise ~$50 billion at a “conservative” ~$1.5 trillion valuation, potentially becoming the largest IPO ever. The company reportedly generated between $15-16 billion in revenue in 2025, with ~$8 billion in EBITDA, primarily driven by Starlink (contributing 50-80% of sales) Reference [13] Reference [14].