🧠 AI/Tech Investment & Strategy

  • NVIDIA eyes Google for investment, seeing it as the last major frontier lab outside its orbit. However, Google has no incentive to accept such a deal 1.
  • Google’s Project Genie could kill traditional game development platforms like Unity and Roblox. AI’s disruptive force will reshape business models relentlessly 14.
  • AI agents exhibit emergent self-iteration. While individual agents are “unconscious repeaters,” their collective action reveals true, emergent demand and evolution 7.

💡 Semiconductor/AI Supply Chain & Industry Dynamics

  • ABF substrate crunch is reshaping the market. Unimicron leads, but rivals are closing in. Ultra-high-density AI server designs face persistent CoWoS packaging shortages, compounded by warping and thermal stress issues 6.
  • Kioxia is significantly displeased with SanDisk’s “freeloading” behavior, highlighting underlying tensions within the industry 8.
  • ASIC server demand fuels Taiwan’s high-end CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) shipments. Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) maintain robust CAPEX, boosting AI server and high-speed network switch markets, driving CCL advancements 27.
  • SanDisk’s recent stock surge may already price in its massive 2027 operating profit margins. If not fully priced, significant upside remains 28.

📈 Market Cycles & Precious Metals Analysis

  • Even after today’s crash, silver is up 126% and gold up 48% over 6 months. Bulls win this battle despite a single day of bears 12.
  • Both $SLV and $SPY saw 9 consecutive positive months, hitting new highs ($SLV at $100, $SPY at 7,000). Such streaks often precede a shift. What comes next is the question 13, 25.
  • Drawdowns are normal. Historical data since 2009 shows yearly occurrences: 2010 (-18%), 2011 (-21%), 2012 (-9% and -11%), 2013 (-5%, -5%, and -7%), 2014 (-5%, -6%, and -7%) 18.
  • Silver’s recent plunge directly stems from CME’s actions. CME hiked margin rates for the second time this month, from 9% to 11% (effective Jan 29), after switching to percentage-based margins on Jan 13. This increases margin costs by 20-25% 29.
  • Copper, not gold, is the “King of Metals” for the next decade. AI and data centers require massive amounts of copper for wiring, power, and cooling – it’s the “nervous system” 30.

💲 Stock Specific Analysis/Investment Strategy

  • My $EL (Estée Lauder) position is now FULL PORT, following a discovery of a significant personal connection 2.
  • Deep analysis of SoFi ($SOFI) after years of observation suggests strong potential, having thoroughly reviewed its fundamentals 16.
  • Significant ownership stakes exceeding 5% in companies like #ONDS are noteworthy 20.
  • Oracle (#ORCL) faces a red flag. Nvidia’s Stargate freeze directly impacts Oracle, which acted as an OpenAI “sublandlord” with maxed leverage. Their high CapEx on facilities might soon have no tenants 21.

⚙️ Options Trading Strategy

  • Selling options in a one-sided market often leads to losses. Options offer more than just selling premium; they provide convexity and protection. While automated tools simplify position management, timing and selection for buying options remain critical 15.

🛰️ Space Tech/AI Infrastructure

  • SpaceX’s FCC filing for a 1 million-satellite constellation with unprecedented AI computing power is a moonshot. The sheer scale is mind-boggling; imagine the sky choked with satellites 19.