đź’° Crypto Market Dynamics

  • $BTC needs to defend the lower support line; otherwise, a plunge to $75k is imminent. 1
  • Bitcoin’s collapse shows no signs of abating. 2
  • I’d consider bidding for $BTC if $MSTR gets thrown under the bus. 5
  • An entry in the $73k-$75k range for $BTC could be the opportunity if $80k breaks. I’m poised to act. 10
  • The fact that $MSTR is trading at similar price levels when $BTC was $57k or $47k, despite Bitcoin currently being at $80k, lacks logical consistency. 12
  • $ETH flash-crashed to its June 2025 lows, now hovering around $2,300. 18
  • The market saw Bitcoin plummet below $79,000 and ETH below $2,400, leading to $1.4 billion in levered long liquidations and over $100 BILLION market cap evaporated in 5 hours. 19
  • My long-term Bitcoin model is flashing “Extremely attractive buy zone,” a historically precise signal for major market turns. 20
  • $MSTR’s $54 billion Bitcoin position is just 3% from flipping into the red. 21
  • Crypto’s recent downturn is best explained by flow data, not geopolitical narratives, as Bitcoin slides under $79,000. 23
  • $MSTR’s Bitcoin holdings are now officially underwater, with $BTC breaking below $76,000 for the first time since Michael Saylor’s cost basis in October 2023. 29

đź§  Trading & Investment Philosophy

  • My options strategy is simple: if shares aren’t profitable, options are off-limits. Leverage only amplifies poor trading habits. 8
  • My past trading involved a quick short on silver, then bailing on SK tariff news. Trading skill is forged through meticulous plan → execution → retrospection cycles. 9
  • When fundamentals strengthen while the stock price dips, it signals an optimal window for scaling into positions. 14
  • Valuing high-growth names like Tesla and Palantir solely by PE is flawed; their PE rarely dips below 100. 24
  • Investing mandates a long view, not monthly gyrations. Palantir toiled in single digits, SoFi’s foundation was laid at $4-5. Robinhood, a true innovator with sharp management, is destined for a breakout. Don’t sleep on opportunities. 25

🎯 Sector & Stock-Specific Insights

  • Silver is testing its 50-day moving average, a level historically marking bottoms and subsequent rallies since June 2025. I anticipate a robust bounce. 4
  • $ASML’s 50% price hike on EUV machines to $284M per unit showcases pure monopoly power, driven by insatiable demand and zero alternatives for $TSM and $INTC. 15
  • $HIMS looks poised for a bottom, with $24 presenting major support. Crushed by nearly -60% since October, the tightening wedge suggests a rebound is on the cards. 16
  • Robinhood’s market correlation is more strongly tied to crypto than to general market “shenanigans.” 22