🧠 AI & Cloud Infrastructure

  • AMZN is strategically integrating its AI investments (Anthropic, OpenAI) with its compute infrastructure. Expect OpenAI to heavily leverage Amazon’s compute, mirroring the Anthropic deal 1.
  • $ORCL aims to raise $50B in 2026 (debt and equity) to boost OCI capacity, driven by contracted demand from major clients like $AMD, $META, $NVDA, OpenAI, TikTok, and xAI 9.

📊 Macro & Market Sentiment

  • US demographic outlook shows deterioration: CBO projects annual deaths will exceed births starting in 2030, with the gap widening yearly through 2056 2.
  • Despite perceived market exuberance, Goldman’s U.S. equity sentiment indicator holds near neutral, suggesting positioning is not stretched for “true market euphoria” 3.
  • Futures show resilience, holding up well despite the crypto bloodbath 4.
  • Expect Warsh to tolerate inflation, provided productivity can absorb it; a clear return to the Greenspan playbook 6.
  • S&P Futures just flipped green, and Silver surged 11%; expect a wild week ahead 12.

🛢️ Commodities & Energy

  • $NATGAS is behaving like a meme stonk, a trend observed across the broader commodity space 7.
  • $XOM is at ATH’s, signaling a major breakout; $150 is likely next 10.

⚡ Semiconductors

  • ASML, Lam, and KLA earnings calls highlight a shared bottleneck: fab clean room constraints 5.
  • Puzzled by the performance divergence: ASML reports strong orders and results, yet Lasertec, whose equipment is typically paired with ASML’s, shows less impressive performance 13.

🪙 Cryptocurrency

  • $ETH hit its lowest point since June 23rd 2025; a significant bounce is expected near $2,100 8.

🇨🇳 China Market Commentary

  • Regarding the Ministry of Finance announcement on January 31st, while legally sound for the three major operators, I see an ethical failing for those with insider knowledge for a month prior 11.