🌐 Macro & Policy Outlook

  • Potential Fed Chair Walker’s policy roadmap faces stiff headwinds from political friction, market forces, and internal Fed dynamics. Focus on what’s actionable, not just desired. 引用[1]
  • Chinese leadership pivoted on deflation, now actively pushing a “price rebound” to counter its dangers. This marks a major policy shift, moving past previous low-price complacency. 引用[2]
  • RMB’s reserve currency status is compromised by opaque official data. Unclear money printing during COVID and persistent property/provincial debt obscure its true value. 引用[3]

📈 Market Structure & Asset Trends

  • Crypto market history shows every crash feels terminal, yet all become mere blips long-term. Expect the 2025-2026 bear cycle to follow suit. 引用[4]
  • Consumer staples are leading the charge; $KO is a key mover. 引用[5]
  • $MSTR stands out: a rare stock climbing from a near -99.9% crash to fresh ATHs, only to subsequently dump -75%. A true market case study in volatility. 引用[6]
  • $ETH posts its lowest Daily RSI since August 2024; $BTC hits its lowest since August 2023. Both indicators flash deeply oversold. 引用[7]

🚀 Tech & Semiconductor Insights

  • $ORCL and $MSFT carry substantial backlog linked to OpenAI (57% and 45% respectively). ORCL management indicates limited exposure even if OpenAI deals hit snags. 引用[8]
  • DRAM prices are spiking: PC memory up ~110% QoQ, server DRAM up ~90%. $MU is driving ~120% server price increases. Expect ~20% laptop price hikes in 1H26. 引用[9]

💡 Investment Tactics

  • Deploy an accumulation strategy on fundamentally strong names like $SOFI, $HOOD, $PLTR. Initiate buys when they breach 200-day moving averages and Bollinger Band lower rails, scaling in across multiple tranches. 引用[10]