Post a 10% daily drop, historical gold data (110 events over 50 years) reveals poor short-term win rates: 5D at -0.07% (43.6% win rate) and 20D at +0.76% (51.8% win rate). Despite long-term mathematical expectations favoring upside, short-term performance after such dips is unfavorable, signaling a patient approach. 6
$SLV candlestick formation (referencing “95’s in after hrs”) signals a potential interim top. 9
All 3-20x leverage has flushed out of silver due to forced selling, resetting positioning and eliminating weak hands. This capitulation likely marks a bottom that could hold for weeks. 10
Silver will not breach $150 this cycle. The violent leverage wipeout shattered market psychology and confidence, requiring significant time to heal before any sustained advance. 14
Commodity markets are navigating unprecedented volatility; this period will be referenced for decades. 22
The recent ~40% plunge in Silver within 48 hours highlights the lethal risks of leverage, affirming that sustainable success avoids borrowed risk. 26
Post-leverage flush, markets cleanse: weak hands exit, open interest collapses, and volatility compresses. This paves the way for price rebuilding based on cash buyers and physical demand, not borrowed capital. 27
Rumors indicate Google may abandon HBM for TPU v8 and beyond. This shift stems from a global HBM capacity shortage and design limitations, hindering AI growth demand for the next 2-3 years. 11
Despite the HBM rumor, a personal assessment casts doubt on its veracity, though awareness is key. 12
DeepSeek’s next-gen model, featuring trillions of parameters, faces training speed bottlenecks due to its immense size. This implies the anticipated Lunar New Year release will likely be a minor update to V3. 18
TrendForce forecasts a full-scale memory price increase in Q1 2026. This is driven by expanding AI and data center demand, deepening the global memory supply-demand imbalance. 25
SpaceX is reportedly in advanced merger talks with xAI, potentially setting the stage for the largest IPO in history. 28
Traders often interpret charts to rationalize existing positions, not to discover truth. Bias precedes analysis. The most valuable market opinions come from those without positions to defend. 19