📈 Market Outlook & Strategy

  • Market sentiment feels reset, back to square one 引用[1].
  • Equally-weighted S&P500 just notched another all-time high monthly close. January’s 3.4% gain is impressive, especially given its historical sub-1% monthly average 引用[3].
  • Recession fears? $DIS’s Parks & Cruises are posting record sales, with families still dropping $10,000 on week-long Disney trips. This data point counters the recession narrative 引用[4].
  • VIX futures showing red suggests a potential bullish swing in the coming days 引用[10].
  • Despite volatility in crypto and metals, $SPX is resilient, less than 1% off ATHs 引用[13].

🔋 Commodity Insights

  • President Trump’s proposed $12B critical-minerals stockpile, targeting rare earths, is a major tailwind for US producers. This elevates players like $MP, who control the only scaled rare earth mining operation 引用[2].
  • Commodity volatility has been compressed, largely driven by energy. This calm is unlikely to hold 引用[11].

💻 Tech & AI Sector Deep Dive

  • Oracle ($ORCL) is raising ~$20B via equity and ~$30B via bonds for cloud expansion. A key driver is its massive ~$300B server rental commitment to OpenAI 引用[5].
  • Snowflake ($SNOW)’s $200M multi-year partnership with OpenAI, embedding models natively into Cortex AI, will drive it deeper into the AI space by providing 12,600+ enterprise customers a governed path for AI agent deployment 引用[8].
  • The OpenAI complex feels like it’s hit maximum pessimism 引用[16].

🏦 Fintech & Single Name Plays

  • Robinhood ($HOOD) is entering the UK market with tax-advantaged ISAs, offering commission-free access to ~5,000 US stocks/ADRs, a 0.1% FX fee, and a 2% cash match on contributions. International growth is just getting started 引用[9].
  • $AAPL chart suggests a bounce is imminent, mirroring past patterns 引用[14].

⛓️ Crypto Pulse

  • $ETH just hit its lowest levels since June 23rd, 2025. Expect a significant bounce around the $2,100 mark 引用[12].

🧠 Trading Psychology & Tactics

  • On noisy days, the best money is often made by doing nothing. This week looks to be one such period 引用[7].
  • When faced with market noise, ignore the weekend chatter and focus on the cash session 引用[15].
  • My strategy for market dips: I’m dollar-cost averaging into a position, starting with the first of ten tranches after breaching Bollinger Bands and the 200-day MA. This approach provides stability, reserving capital for further additions if the dip continues, rather than going all-in at current levels 引用[6].