🧠 Crypto Market Dynamics & Opinion

  • Desire for $MSTR liquidation, bullish on $BITX. 3
  • Every time a “Perma Bull” claims Bitcoin has bottomed, it consistently leads to a new low, observed with a 100% success rate over the last 6 months. 16
  • The charts for $QQQ and $BTC show extreme divergence, making them difficult to interpret. 19
  • $BMNR’s appreciation is entirely contingent on a significant rise in $ETH price; selling puts is a potential strategy. 23

📊 Technical Analysis & Stock Outlook

  • Palantir ($PLTR) is primed, testing its 50 Week SMA for the first time since August 2024. 4
  • $MSFT is nearing a fresh 7-year low relative to $QQQ, an extreme valuation warranting observation. 15
  • The $SPX and overall market are consolidating, signaling tightening conditions. 17
  • $MSFT is on thin ice, in a precarious technical position. 20
  • $META needs to hold the $700 level. 21

📈 Market Structure & Trends

  • The Dow Jones Transportation Average hit a new all-time high in January, a rare occurrence. 7
  • US stock market concentration reached record levels, with the S&P 500 Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) at 195 points, near its highest on record, indicating market value is unevenly distributed. 12

💰 Portfolio Strategy & Macro Outlook

  • Successfully exited $AVGO shares for profit, now comfortably positioned. 18
  • Maintaining exposure to European stocks, having added more today. Shorted EURUSD since Friday, doubling down Sunday night, anticipating EURO to return to 1.16, which would benefit European stocks. 22
  • Real-time inflation is sharply declining, “falling off a cliff.” 24
  • Maintaining a risk-off stance for February, taking profits on GOOG/ AMZN before earnings, and preparing to cut XLF/ XLI if an SPX selloff occurs. 26

🏢 Company Analysis & Business Transformation

  • Ondas has transitioned from a defensive to an offensive company due to the integration of Rotron, now focusing on one-way autonomous attack capabilities. 29

🪙 ETF & Commodity Performance

  • The $RGTI 2x levered ETF $RGTX appears to perform worse than the Silver 2x ETF. 10
  • $SLV (Silver ETF) is still up +10% year-to-date, despite an “historic -40% drop” in the last 3 days. 13