๐Ÿ“ˆ Market Outlook & Macro

  • ๐Ÿป Bears lack follow-through; no sustained sell-off after big red days in a long time 4.
  • ๐Ÿš€ Silver is set to break out; a 20% rally from the 70s will look trivial eventually 10.
  • ๐Ÿ‘‘ Gold is back above $5,000/oz. Consistent dip buying signals deep undervaluation relative to global imbalances 13.
  • โš ๏ธ “Spring Robbery” market scenario likely; crypto markets reacted first. Macro signals point to at most one rate cut before May, or none, as liquidity slowly recovers with bank reserves still below $3 trillion 29.

๐Ÿš€ Tech & AI Sector Insights

  • ๐Ÿ’ธ $GOOG reports after the bell; implied move is roughly +/- 6.2%. It’s the only Maggy 7 stock still near ATHs, showing 11 straight months of gains. Everyone is long, holding deep paper profits 12.
  • ๐Ÿค– Companies previously labeled “programmatic” and “automated,” like $PATH, $DOCU, $TTD, $CRM, $NOW, are now facing brutal logical selling against the AI wave 16.

๐Ÿ“Š Company Specifics & Investment Decisions

  • ๐Ÿงฌ $TEM holds potential; diagnostics offer high certainty due to proprietary human data. Pharma requires ecosystem integration. Currently in multimodal data accumulation and model training, Tempus has an edge over early Tesla with data/tools 5.
  • ๐Ÿ“‰ $PYPL was a value trap; those buying it “cheap” over the last five years rode it down over 80% 11.
  • ๐Ÿ“Š $PLTR is strong, but valuation remains extremely high 17.
  • ๐Ÿ›‘ Disappointed with $PYPL post-earnings, liquidating position. Management’s conservative approach was the breaking point 21.
  • ๐Ÿ“‰ $AMD earnings reaction turned negative for 3 reasons, including the stock already pricing in 2027 performance 23.
  • ๐Ÿ’ก Picked up Ibiden shares. Even if Intel wins external EMIB-T orders, Ibiden, as Intel’s substrate supplier, stands to benefit more. Strong outlook for ABF 24.

๐Ÿ’ฐ Tax & ETF Strategy

  • ๐Ÿ’ฐ Certain ETFs offer significant tax advantages due to most dividends being classified as return of capital 6.