🚀 Defense & Aerospace

  • Kratos Defense’s subsidiary, Kratos SRE, confirmed as a finalist in the US Department of Defense’s “Drone Dominance Program (DDP) Phase 1” for low-cost, expendable, one-way attack drones (Project “The Gauntlet”) 1.
  • Ondas Holdings (#ONDS), via Airobotics, secured an APAC defense contract to deploy autonomous UAS for national security, with initial deliveries by 2026 2.
  • Ondas Holdings (#ONDS) confirmed its Wasp drone, a @AmericanRobotic and W S Darley & Co. collaboration, is invited to compete in DDP Phase 1 3.

🤖 Semiconductor & AI Industry

  • AMD’s 4Q25 revenue hit a record $10.3B (up 11% Q/Q, 34% Y/Y) at 57% GM, including $390M from MI308 in China (non-recurring). Data Center segment revenue could grow over 60% in 2026, targeting “tens of billions” in AI revenue by 2027 4.
  • Google’s (#GOOGL) Gemini and xAI’s Grok are capturing US mobile DAU share from ChatGPT. Gemini surged from 14.7% to 25.1% YoY, while Grok leaped from 1.6% to 15.2%. The critical insight: bundled AI assistants reduce switching costs, making distribution more impactful than model quality 5.
  • Teradyne forecasts mobile markets won’t reclaim prior peaks, even with 2nm/WMCM, citing the enormous installed base as a cap on incremental growth. Merchant DC GPU qualification is underway, with revenue expected in 2H 6.
  • Infineon projects its AI server revenue to surge from €250M in FY23 to €1.5B in FY26 and €2.5B in FY27—a 10x increase in three years. The company is accelerating capacity investments to fuel this AI growth 7.
  • Skyworks expects flat content at Apple this year, despite strong demand and unit growth acting as a tailwind. Its Broad Markets (non-mobile) segment is growing steadily but remains under 40%, indicating a long path to full mobile diversification 8.

📉 Market Technicals & Sector Analysis

  • NASDAQ 100 is heavily oversold, with 28% of stocks having an RSI below 30—a level not seen since “Trump’s Liberation Day crash.” This is attributed to the recent collapse in software stocks 9.
  • Software stocks are in a sustained downtrend, leading to speculation about an imminent bounce 10.
  • Historically, every gap down at open for $SPY and $QQQ has been filled, typically within a day or two. Today’s gap down could follow this pattern 11.
  • The market holds a strong view on software stocks, with a notable observed correlation between Bitcoin and software stock movements. For Bitcoin, it’s a make-or-break moment 12.
  • Popular retail stocks $SOFI, $HOOD, and $PLTR have all broken below their 200-day moving averages, signaling technical weakness. However, they appear near-term oversold, hinting at potential for a rebound 13.

🌐 Macroeconomics & Fixed Income

  • Demand for Japanese government bonds is extremely weak, with the 10-year bid-to-cover ratio falling to 3.02 at Tuesday’s auction, below last month’s 3.30 and the 12-month average of 3.24, signaling growing investor reluctance 14.

🧠 Investment & Trading Strategy

  • The top NASDAQ-tracking covered call ETF is not $QQQI, but rather Goldman Sachs$GPIQ 15.
  • Effective position sizing is crucial for risk management. A 12% drop on a 20% position in a $50,000 account means a 2.4% portfolio loss, versus a significantly smaller impact with an 8% position 16.

💰 Commodities & Crypto

  • The $2,100 level is crucial for $ETH. While a dip to test the $2,000 “holy grail” is possible, holding that level is paramount 17.
  • $GLD has retraced half its losses from last week, and $SLV nearly half. If last week marked a blow-off top, then these dead cat bounces warrant caution, potentially indicating investor complacency 18.