🎯 Investment & Trading Wisdom

  • Never fight the market or try to catch a falling knife in the short term; wait for capitulation before engaging. 1
  • The “undervalued” argument is often a canard. Truly good assets at fair prices don’t sit on the shelf; they get snapped up. 3
  • Market narratives are cyclical; what’s a “problem” today could be ignored or reversed tomorrow. 25

🚀 Tech & Sector Shifts

  • $SNAP trades near all-time lows, sparking speculation of a potential reverse split ahead of earnings. 2
  • A “retest” like $HOOD is experiencing can be a healthy sign, often preceding a bottoming process. 4
  • Company name changes often precede significant stock 杀跌: MicroStrategy (now “Strategy”) is down 60%+ year-on-year, mirroring Facebook (now Meta), which fell over 70% after its Oct 2021 rebrand. 13
  • Brokerage stocks show sharp divergence: $SCHW and $IBKR are at/near ATH’s, while $HOOD is -50% off ATH’s and $BULL -92% off ATH’s. Robinhood, a 2025 story, is now deep in a bear market. 26
  • B.Riley upgraded $LITE to “Buy,” hiking the target price from $147 to $526. Key catalysts cited include optical cross-connect (OCS) expansion in H2 2026 and CPO capacity announcements from early 2027. 23
  • Market cap dynamics among tech behemoths are shifting; $GOOG and $AAPL nearly overtook $NVDA, pushing $MSFT further down to a distant fourth. 17
  • Google’s ($GOOG) substantially higher CAPEX guidance ($175 Billion - $185 Billion vs $115 Billion consensus) signals strong internal conviction for future growth, likely driven by AI. 19

đź“Š Market Breadth & Macro View

  • Despite major indices showing modest pullbacks ($SPY -1.70% off ATH’s, $IWM -4.20% off ATH’s, $QQQ -5.00% off ATH’s), individual name carnage suggests indices should be deeper in the red (e.g., $SPY down 5%, $QQQ down 10%). 11
  • A bullish breadth divergence is evident: $SPX dipped, yet over 70% of its components advanced. Historically, 10 out of 11 such instances led to a $SPX rally within 3-4 days. 15
  • Stress in the US tech credit market is surging: distressed tech loans reached 14.5% (highest since the 2022 bear market), and the tech bond distressed ratio hit 9.5% (highest since Q4 2023). 28
  • The commodities cycle is still early. Decades of underinvestment cannot be reversed by just two years of performance, indicating sustained institutional inflows. 29
  • Large corporations, equipped with superior AI insights, are deploying hundreds of billions into the sector and boosting CAPEX guidance significantly. This contradicts the “AI bubble” narrative. 27