🧠 AI & Big Tech Strategy

  • $GOOGL Gemini’s deep embedding in leading SaaS workflows signals a positive industry trend, driving usage and productivity. AI demand remains supply-constrained, pushing multi-year capex and in-house solutions. 1
  • $GOOGL strategically allocates capex: ~60% to servers & machines, ~40% to data centers & networking. Crucially, 50% of 2026 ML compute is directed towards Google Cloud, targeting external revenue. 2
  • Google Cloud is now outpacing Microsoft Azure in revenue growth, a significant competitive shift. 4
  • NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang refutes market fears of AI replacing software companies, dismissing such concerns as misguided. 5
  • The Big Tech CAPEX arms race for 2026 is intense: $GOOGL $180B (+98% YoY), $AMZN est. $147B (+16% YoY), $META $125B (+74% YoY), $MSFT $105B (+31% YoY). 6
  • Questioning the direct translation of Google’s capex boost to AVGO, given MediaTek’s presence and Google’s efforts to build TPUs with external SerDes, bypassing traditional partners. 7
  • $AMZN AWS CEO confirms relentless demand for $NVDA A100 GPUs; none have been retired, despite the chip’s age. 18
  • Disruptive potential: Could Claude challenge the Bloomberg Terminal’s market dominance? 19

semiconductor industry ⚡️

  • TSMC is expanding its 3nm production with a second fab planned for Kumamoto, Japan, backed by an estimated $17 billion capex. 11, 13
  • TSMC is set to transform Chiayi, Taiwan, into the world’s largest advanced semiconductor packaging hub, greenlit by an 89.58-hectare expansion. 12
  • Cathie Wood made a conviction buy of ~$29M in $AMD today. 20

☁️ Software Sector Dynamics

  • $IGV has bottomed; a bounce play is in motion as call volume soars. 9, 10
  • The $IGV daily candle vanishing in volume is a clear red flag. 14
  • Immediate outlook for $IGV (Software complex): Expect a wick down, then a reclaim of the violated UTL. 16
  • The SaaSpocalypse 2026 shows deep drawdowns from highs: $FIG −83%, $HUBS −71%, $MNDY −70%, $TEAM −68%, $ESTC −56%, $NOW −53%. 23

🌍 Macroeconomic Outlook

  • US debt crisis accelerating: Interest payments as a percentage of federal revenue are projected to hit a record 23% by 2035, more than doubling the 2002-2022 average. 15
  • US and global economic re-acceleration is now undeniable. 22