📈 Market Trends & Outlook

  • $JPM saw a “beautiful bounce,” approaching $320. 引用[1]
  • Market sentiment rapidly shifting; tech moved from “most-loved” to “least-favored,” ending easy money. Now a “stock-picker’s market” amidst conflicting views of a 50% correction versus 10x targets on zero-revenue names. 引用[11]
  • The “pain trade” has “Broadened” since October, signaling a shift where sectors like trucking are outperforming tech; confirmed by $RSP > $SPY. 引用[14]
  • US high-growth stocks experienced a “great cleansing,” with common pullbacks of 5% and some plunging 15% to 20%, breaking below technical levels. The “entry price” is here, but the question is: dare you buy? 引用[18]
  • $VIX is up 8 of the last 9 days but fails to close above the psychological 20 level. 引用[10]

₿ Crypto Market Dynamics

  • Questioning if #BTC is due for a bounce, asking about longing for a relief bounce. 引用[2]
  • Questioning when $BTC and $ETH will bounce, even if only a Dead Cat Bounce (DCB). 引用[7]
  • Speculating on Bitcoin’s next target: $38k? 引用[19]
  • Incredulous that $MSTR nearly entered the S&P 500 over SanDisk, questioning the business model of a company primarily buying Bitcoin. 引用[21]

🧠 AI & Tech Sector Insights

  • AI-generated content is hitting new highs; one AI ad praised as “by far the best in years.” 引用[3]
  • Mag 7 earnings report card: $META ✅, $MSFT ❌, $TSLA ❌, $AAPL ✅, $GOOGL 🥞 (Flat). Debating how to trade $AMZN next. 引用[6]
  • The “Magnificent 7” moniker is flawed; excluding Google, the other M6 stocks are down 5~25% from all-time highs, with Google solely propping up gains. Market cap increased by $1.7 trillion over the past 6 months. 引用[12]
  • Market behavior is irrational; contradictory conclusions are drawn from trading. This includes: AI boom consensus exists, yet major players’ CAPEX decisions (high or low) trigger selling. Investing too much or too little in OpenAI causes panic. Optimism for AI computing power chains, but assembled racks face inevitable depreciation. 引用[13]
  • A BofA analyst argues it’s illogical for both chip and software sectors to sell off simultaneously; chip stock declines imply deteriorating AI ROI. 引用[16]
  • The SaaS sector is experiencing a “baby with bathwater” collapse, driven by “mindless selling” over perceived AI threats like Claude, reminiscent of the exaggerated GLP-1 hype. 引用[17]

📊 Macroeconomic & Sector Analysis

  • The U.S. and global re-acceleration is now widely recognized, two months after its inception. 引用[8]
  • US manufacturing downturn may be bottoming out; ISM Manufacturing PMI jumped +4.7 points in January to 52.6, the highest since August 2022, marking the first monthly expansion in 12 months. New orders surged +9.7 points to 57.1, highest since February 2022. 引用[9]
  • Market dynamics shifted post-Jan 1st, leading to growth underperformance; concerns about a repeat of 2021. 引用[4]
  • A “wild correlation” exists between inverted $ARKK and the 10-year yield; for positive movement, yields must drop below 4%. 引用[5]

💡 Investment Strategy & Psychology

  • Debating whether to “buy this dip.” 引用[15]
  • Market pullbacks are normal; those holding cash are advantaged. Mastering market sentiment is crucial. 引用[20]