A Stifel prediction of a -50% crypto drop would spell financial ruin for many, but Stifel has a poor track record, having previously called for a 20% market correction in 2H last year that didn’t materialize. 29
Algorithmic trading shifts post-Jan 1st have crushed ‘growth’ stocks; fear of a repeat of 2021 market dynamics lingers. 6
A strong correlation exists between an inverted $ARKK chart and the 10-year yield; yields need to drop below 4% for a market turnaround. 7
The U.S. and Global economies are in a re-acceleration phase, now widely recognized two months after initial observations. 10
The US manufacturing downturn shows signs of bottoming out: ISM Manufacturing PMI jumped +4.7 points to 52.6 in January, hitting its highest since August 2022 and marking the first monthly expansion in 12 months, with new orders surging +9.7 points to 57.1. 11
$VIX has climbed 8 of the last 9 days but fails to close above the psychological 20 level. 12
Tech has flipped from most-loved to least-favored, indicating a shift away from easy money to a stock-picker’s market; market views are polarized between a bear market/50% correction and 10x targets for zero-revenue names. 13
The ‘pain trade’ has broadened since October, with $RSP outperforming $SPY, suggesting a rotation from growth to broader market strength. 16
Questioning if the current dip is a buying opportunity or a deeper issue for Robinhood. 18
A significant ‘cleansing’ is underway in high-growth U.S. stocks, with many correcting 5% to 20%, breaking below Bollinger Bands and 200-day moving averages; the real question is whether investors dare to buy the dip now that desired entry points have emerged. 25
Market behaviors suggest irrationality concerning AI: Investors approve of AI prosperity but scrutinize major players’ moves, selling on high or low capex, and fearing or embracing OpenAI investments; AI computing power is favored, but assembled racks face rapid depreciation. 15
A BofA analyst, Vivek Arya, argues it’s illogical for chip and software sectors to sell off concurrently; declining chip stocks imply deteriorating AI ROI, while declining software stocks indicate a different fundamental issue. 19
The SaaS sector is experiencing a ‘baby with the bathwater’ style collapse due to irrational selling based on exaggerated fears that Claude AI will make everything extinct, reminiscent of the hyperbole around GLP-1 threats. 23
It’s embarrassing to still call them the ‘Mag 7’; excluding Google, the other six are down 5% to 25% from all-time highs, with Google solely propping up the group’s recent gains despite a $1.7 trillion market cap increase over six months. 14
$BMNR hit multi-month lows at $19.66 overnight, leaving approximately 99% of retail holders underwater, a clear disaster despite favorable views from analysts like Tom Lee. 28
$GME is up +21% YTD, outperforming all major indices, every Mag 7 stock, every crypto, and over 470 S&P500 components. 30