FinTwit sentiment shows extreme polarization, swinging between “mega crash” and “perma bull” narratives. A “weird environment” reigns. 1
Portfolio took one of the worst hits in years, yet no clear headline explained the broad sell-off. 4
Market corrections are routine. Capital readiness provides an edge. Mastering market sentiment remains critical. 5
Countering the “boomer stocks suck” narrative, several traditional players like $WMT, $JNJ, $LLY, $XOM, and $CAT are hitting All-Time Highs. 16
$QQQ bulls must hold the $600 double bottom, pushing towards a $619 retest of the 50dma. Historically, dips below the 50dma have signaled buying opportunities. 17
A market top was successfully called, resulting in a -19% price drop post-prediction. 23
While tech disruptions dominate headlines, the US yield curve has steadily steepened. The 2-year and 10-year yield gap now stands at its widest since January 2022. 28
Post-software stock crash, $IGV call volume surged to a record high, indicating strong market conviction for a bounce. 2
HP and Dell privately confirmed intentions to use Chinese-made memory in their “consumer-grade” products. 8
Skepticism remains regarding Dell and HP’s ability to extensively adopt Chinese-made memory; new capacity will largely prioritize Chinese tech giants like Huawei and Lenovo. 10
Samsung plans a significant DRAM capacity expansion for HBM4, boosting production by 120,000 wafers per month, a nearly 20% increase, primarily at Pyeongtaek Plant 4. 18
$MSFT is trading near a 10-year low relative to $AAPL, signaling a notable valuation divergence. 19
Google’s ($GOOG) increased earnings spending failed to stimulate Korean supplier stocks such as SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, revealing a market disconnect. 22
Qualcomm’s QDec25 saw all end markets grow, with handset and Auto hitting all-time highs. However, QMar handset revenue expects a significant hit from “memoryflation,” exceeding typical seasonal declines. 25
A personal shift from Claude to Codex is underway, with anticipation for a more engaging experience. 3
$ARM CEO Rene Haas labeled the AI software sell-off as “micro-hysteria,” asserting that enterprise AI adoption is still in its early stages. He challenged the focus on coding as the primary GDP-level AI use case, suggesting market narratives conflate distinct AI stories. 29
Criticism targets MicroStrategy’s ($MSTR) business model, questioning its focus solely on Bitcoin accumulation and its suitability for S&P 500 inclusion. 6
$UPS at $117 demonstrates resilience, implying market concerns regarding its performance are overstated. 9
Bullish on $AMZN ahead of earnings; an implied +/- 8.5% move is anticipated. As last year’s weakest “Magnificent 7” performer, $AMZN could reclaim ground, potentially hitting a new All Time Closing High. 11