📉 Market Outlook & Broad Trends

February is shaping up for market fireworks. 1
Individual stocks are crashing, down -40% to -70%+. This signals buying opportunities for well-researched stocks on sale. 3
VIX is on an unusual run, up 4 weeks straight and 9 of the last 10 days. 15, 19
Market behavior patterns mirror 1998, suggesting the “Tariff Tantrum” reflexive pump is exhausted. 16
A VIX Crush Friday is possible, with AMZN earnings as a potential catalyst. 17
QQQ has seen back-to-back monster red days, potentially setting up for a relief rally Friday. 22
The breakdown continues for SPY and QQQ. 24
US employers announced 108,435 layoffs in January, a 205% jump from December, marking the highest January total since 2009. 23
The current US stock sell-off is primarily due to internal industry dynamics, especially within the AI sector, not macro issues. This differs from previous macro-driven dips like the “Tariff War” sell-off. 25

₿ Crypto Market Dynamics

Bitcoin’s RSI is below 21, the most oversold since 2023. Historically, similar conditions led to a rally 9 out of 10 times the next day, with a median gain of +3.3%. 2
BTC has key support at $60k. 4
The crypto market cap plunged by -$2 TRILLION, or ~46% in 4 months, from a record $4.3 trillion on October 6th to $2.3 trillion today. 9
Bitcoin’s crash is a brutal lesson: stop throwing out reckless price targets and be wary of market promises. 12
Bitcoin is in a bear market, with weekly RSI extremely oversold (below 30). This condition has occurred only 4 times before, each instance seeing Bitcoin higher 4 days later, averaging +16% gains. 18
Crypto markets wiped out another -$1 TRILLION in market cap since January 14th. 20

GOOG is down -5% in pre-market, seen as healthy consolidation after a monstrous run-up, building long-term support. 5
HIMS jumped +20% in pre-market, perfectly bouncing off the $24 major support level. 6
HOOD is trading at May 2025 levels relative to SCHW, and its RSI relative to SCHW is at historically oversold levels. 7
AMD’s Q4 earnings were impressive, with strong guidance, fueling increased long-term expectations. 11
Bulls critically need QQQ to hold the $600 “double bottom” level and retest the $619 (50-day moving average). 13
Weekly put sellers are getting crushed in the current market environment. 14
The TSLA share price, at $392.84, has re-entered Elon Musk’s September 12th buying range (372.37 to 396.54 USD). 21

The market is witnessing a paradoxical sell-off: both companies poised for AI disruption and those doing the disrupting are getting hit. 8
Tesla Cybercab prototype shows an interior without a steering wheel or pedals, confirming Elon’s vision for a fully autonomous, passenger-only vehicle. 10