📈 Market Outlook & Technicals

$SPY faces a predicted 5% pullback between now and March; it’s not a catastrophic crash, but market fear could amplify its perception. 2
VIX futures are curling up, with spot higher than 1-month futures. This signals either a looming liquidity cascade or a fleeting “Buy The F***ing Dip” (BTFD) opportunity. Key support floors, SPX 6800, SPY 675, and QQQ 600, have largely been touched. 3
While a strong support level exists at $380, even prominent investors adding shares does not guarantee it won’t break. Those with cash should add cautiously; others should hold. 8
For a relief rally, $QQQ needs to recapture $600. A strong $AMZN after-hours report could trigger a ~1% rally and a $VIX crush of 10-15% on Friday. 10
$QQQ shows a significant relief bounce; holding the $600 level is crucial. 14

💡 Big Tech Analysis & Strategy

Market panic over Google, Microsoft, and META CapEx presents a prime buying opportunity. Microsoft cloud revenue hit $51.5B (+26%), Azure surged 39%. META ad impressions grew 18%, DAP exceeded 3.58B. GOOGL Q4 cloud revenue jumped 48%, bolstered by Gemini App. 4
$GOOGL FY2025 revenue broke $400B, Q4 revenue up 18% to $113.8B, net profit up 30%. Google Cloud revenue soared 48%, AI impact clear with Gemini App MAU over 750M. Company declared a $0.21/share dividend and projects 2026 CapEx over $175B for AI infrastructure. If even Google faces a sell-off, expect broader market capitulation. 9
The 2026 Big Tech CapEx arms race is on: $GOOGL eyes $180B (+98% YoY), $AMZN an estimated $147B (+16% YoY), and $META $125B (+74% YoY). 11
A key takeaway from $GOOGL earnings: Search isn’t breaking under AI pressure but is instead bending in a favorable direction. 16

Reconsider Bitcoin’s classification: it now acts more like a high-beta tech stock than an independent high-risk asset. 5
Bitcoin has hit its maximum support level; this must hold at all costs. 13
Exercise extreme caution when shorting crypto. Despite widespread fear and logical bear cases, a straight-line drop for $BTC to $0 is unlikely. 15

The stock market fundamentally alters participants: traders evolve into long-term investors, and day traders transition to swing trading. 6
“All-in” investing is irrational; pinpointing the absolute bottom is impossible, making such concentrated bets overly confident and risky. 7
A conservative investment approach favors buying shares and selling puts or put credit spreads, always avoiding leverage on common stock buys. 12

$NVO CEO critiques $HIMS compounded GLP-1 pill, stating patients would be “wasting $49” due to improper absorption, indicating fierce competition and a product efficacy debate in the GLP-1 market. 1

Gold stands as the sole major asset class that has not “round-tripped” its gains since Trump’s election win in November 2024. 18

$ARM rocketed from $90 after-hours post-earnings to $111, a notable bounce despite a terrible broader market session. 17