🔮 Market Sentiment & Indicators

  • The Hindenburg Omen signals are flashing, a third in two weeks, suggesting a dangerous cluster. 🚨 4
  • $VIX is screaming, up 9 of the last 10 days, closing at 2.5-month highs. The Friday action will be telling. 5
  • Indices are masking significant underlying carnage. Individual stocks and groups are experiencing sell-offs worse than February-April 2025. 9
  • We’ve officially entered a bear market. 21
  • Market movements are driven by pure liquidity, not by narratives or personality. 27

📉 Sector & Stock Specifics

  • $AMZN plunging back below $200 is frankly unbelievable. 1
  • My $AMD position is getting washed, negating a short call. $SPY’s move came sooner than expected. 3
  • Market makers are aggressively trying to push silver below 71.4. 7
  • People are finally getting it: $MSTR earnings simply don’t matter. 10
  • $GOOG and $AAPL are showing insane strength, single-handedly lifting the indices despite broader market weakness. 12
  • $PLTR got hit with an ‘Uno Reverse Card’, dropping to $125 after hours from nearly $170 post-earnings just two days prior. 14
  • The after-hours price action proves markets should not be open 24/7, with brutal drops across the board: $IREN -26%, $ONDS -20%, $CIFR -18%, $BMNR -17%, $EOSE -17%, $NBIS -16%, $ASTS -15%, $AMZN -14%, $RKLB -13%, $OKLO -13%, $HOOD -13%, $OSCR -11%, $PLTR -10%. 18
  • $QQQ bulls absolutely must hold the $600 potential ‘double bottom’ and aim for a retest of the 50dma at $619. 19
  • Software stocks got crushed while Defensives soared. Traders are betting on a bounce in Software ($IGV call volume hit a new record) and a pullback in Defensives ($XLP put volume soared). 20

🚀 Crypto Market Insights

  • Crypto fell off the table: Gold and silver sold off, tech looks terrible, software is getting sold on repeat, high BETA names are down 30%+. 6
  • Bitcoin has arrived at max support and must hold this level at all costs. 11
  • The market lacks understanding of second-order risks in $BTC options; simple Dynamic Delta Hedging (DDH) is insufficient. Vanna is ripping portfolios apart, adding fuel to the fire, and Volga exponentially magnifies losses. 13
  • Crypto markets are in freefall, down -50% since October 10th, erasing $2.2 TRILLION in market cap. Bitcoin has completely unwound its post-election rally, now down -10% since Trump’s election. 15
  • Over 5 years, $BTC’s return is a flat 0%. 17
  • Polymarket indicates a 59% chance Bitcoin will fall below $50,000 this year, suggesting an imminent drop is the market’s base case. 23
  • For $XRP, we haven’t seen anything yet. 24
  • Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed Index plummeted to 12, signaling “Extreme Fear,” just 2 points shy of April 2025 levels, highlighting emotional selling. 30