US market deleveraging looms: margin debt hit new highs, investor credit record lows. Fund managers hold minimal cash, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ETF shorts are at all-time lows, signaling limited upside fuel and squeezed short interest. 1
During a market downturn (“mud and sand flowing together”), investors grounded in fundamentals, without leverage, should remain steadfast. Emotions always yield to fundamentals; peak investment opportunities often emerge from market troughs. 2
The market over the next 3-6 months won’t be a crash or a rally, but a type of market that quietly ends trading careers, which many are currently walking into unprepared. 3
Alternative data suggests continued US job market weakness; LinkUp estimates -25,000 jobs lost in January, marking the 4th monthly contraction. 4
US employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January, an 118% YoY increase, setting a record for January since 2009. Recruitment plans also hit a record low of 5,306, with transportation (31,243), tech (22,291, including Amazon), and healthcare (17,107) leading the layoffs. 5
The market “vibe coding” suggests a no-win scenario: both high and low CAPEX are perceived negatively. This leads to a cynical outlook that the Nasdaq may never recover significant gains. 6
Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon collectively project over $600 billion in CAPEX this year, nearly double last year’s $350 billion, and significantly up from 2024’s $251 billion. 7
The dramatic surge in expected CAPEX for AMZN, GOOGL, and MSFT—from $244 billion 12 months ago to a current $494 billion—is a “staggering sum” that markets are balking at funding. 8
The 2026 Big Tech CAPEX race features AMZN at $200B (+52% YoY), GOOGL at $180B (+98% YoY), and META at $125B (+74% YoY). 9
Bitcoin held $60k support for now, but the bounce could be a “dead cat bounce.” 10
Bitcoin surged from $60k to nearly $66k, with $70k potentially on deck. 11
Bitcoin will likely bottom out amid the current US stock market deleveraging. The accelerating, steep decline with rising volume points to an unsustainable parabolic move; selling pressure should gradually ease. 12
Crypto markets have plunged -50% since October 10th, shedding $2.2 trillion in market cap; -$1 trillion was lost since January 14th alone. 13 / 14
Kyle, co-founder of Multicoin, a figure known for clear insights, early Solana investment, and transparent handling of FTX losses, is exiting crypto, signaling a significant shift for the industry. 15
Investors are rushing into consumer staples, with +$702 million in inflows last week (4th consecutive), totaling +$3.6 billion over the last 4 weeks, indicating a defensive market rotation. 18
Risk management takes precedence over profit potential. Before initiating a trade, always assess the maximum potential loss if the stop-loss is triggered. Risk is primary; profit is secondary. 19
Silver at ~$65/oz now shows an RSI of ~30 amid widespread panic. This contrasts sharply with mid-December, when it traded at the same price with an RSI pushing 80 and euphoric sentiment, suggesting a tactical entry point. 20
China’s move toward a gold-backed digital currency is a significant, yet underappreciated, development. This signals a gradual, clear shift in global financial architecture, though not necessarily an immediate end to the US dollar’s dominance. 21
To stabilize the market before it’s too late, recommends political intervention: replace Warsh and bring in Rieder, implying a shift in economic policy or philosophy. 22