Investor psychology shifts rapidly: fear dominates downturns, then anxiety and limited dry powder emerge during rebounds, often paired with skepticism regarding rally sustainability 1, 5.
Margin requirement hikes during market bubbles stem from excessive retail leverage, not broader conspiracies 2.
Volatility is the cost of entry for growth investors; market “resets” are inherent processes designed to shake out weak hands before long-term trends resume 3.
Leverage combined with small-cap exposure and volatility forms a “death spiral” for portfolios (e.g., 80% drawdown from 9M to 2M); poor investments frequently originate during market booms, highlighting the constant struggle against human nature in investing 4.
$QQQ is primed for a relief rally after multiple “monster red days,” especially if it holds above $600 6, 8, 13.
NYSE breadth indicators show underlying strength, with new 52-week highs and the Advance-Decline line at all-time highs, challenging assumptions about bull market tops 7.
Institutional investors are in a selling spree, with hedge funds liquidating US single stocks at the fastest pace since October, driven by both short sales and long position unwinding 9.
Expect a significant “dead cat bounce” in numerous software stocks 10.
$SPY faces continued turbulence in February and March, marked by zig-zag movements and potential retests of Nov 2025 lows, despite any interim bounces 11.
NASDAQ 100 shows 31% of its components oversold (RSI < 30) – a level last seen during the April 2025 crash; watch software stocks for potential leadership in a rebound 12.
Microchip (QDec26) signals a strong recovery narrative post-1Q25 bottoming, with robust revenue growth (4% q/q, 15.6% y/y), positive bookings/inventory trends, and backlog strength through Dec26, though still 48% below its prior quarterly peak 14.
Bitcoin ($BTC) is exhibiting capitulation signals, including record Put Volume in Bitcoin ETF ($IBIT), unprecedented $IBIT trading volume, and 3-year low sentiment 15.
Amazon ($AMZN) has effectively round-tripped 5 years of gains, hitting $196 yesterday, akin to $TSLA’s long-term stagnation; consider dips below $200 a buying opportunity 16.
MicroStrategy ($MSTR) demonstrates a volatile trading history, famously recovering from a near -99.9% plunge to new all-time highs, yet recently experiencing an -82% drawdown from its peak 17.
Anthropic is pioneering the “Great Displacement of the Software Interface,” transforming AI frontier models into an enterprise instruction layer through usage-based economics, moving away from traditional per-seat subscriptions 18.
PayPal ($PYPL) faces an aggressive downtrend: 4 consecutive months down, 13 of the last 15 weeks, and 10 straight days. Its daily RSI is the lowest in the market, having erased nearly all gains since its spin-off IPO, coinciding with new CEO leadership 19.