⚡️ Volatility & Market Structure

• Market volatility is extreme beneath the surface. Average S&P 500 stock volatility is 7x higher than the index itself. This ratio has doubled in 2 weeks since 2022. 1
• $VIX is getting crushed, down nearly -20%, following a run of almost 10 straight days up. VIX Crush Fridays™️ in full effect. 14

📉 Stock Specifics & Tech Analysis

• $PYPL is on its longest losing streak in the entire market at 11 straight red days, with its daily RSI near 11, an extreme low. 2
• $HIMS has turned sour lately. While previously liked, recent performance makes it challenging. 3

⏳ Market Timing & Reversals

• Observing conditions historically indicative of market bottoms. 4
• Questioning if today’s rally in $SPY and $QQQ is merely a dead cat bounce. 6
• A false breakdown occurs when price briefly dips below support, fails to hold, and quickly reverses, shaking out sellers and trapping shorts. 10

💰 Valuation & Tech Plays

• Many high-quality tech stocks now look cheaper than blue chips on a PE basis. Amazon ($AMZN) is down 9% post-earnings, with a PE of 28. Robinhood ($HOOD) is nearly halved from its high, with a PE of 33x. 5
• $NVDA added ~$300B to market cap today, coinciding with $AMZN, $GOOGL, $META, & $MSFT committing over $620B in CapEx this year. 13

🏭 Sector Deep Dive

• The semiconductor narrative got a strong boost from MAG7 ERs, positioning the sector as a safe haven despite recent selling pressure. Expecting further crowding before NVDA ER, planning aggressive profit-taking beforehand. 7
• Investors are piling into US software stocks. Call options volume in $IGV surged to a record 220,000 contracts on Wednesday, 4x higher than the 2025 peak, even after $IGV declined -25%. 9

🎯 Investment Strategy

• This week, focus is on Quality. $HWM and $GE were strong ideas into yesterday’s flush, both seeing decent gains today, anticipating more upside. 8

💡 Tech Innovation

• $GOOGL’s Waymo introduced its “Waymo World Model,” a hyper-realistic autonomous driving simulator built on DeepMind’s Genie 3. This reinforces a structural advantage in their autonomy stack. 15

🧠 Investor Psychology

• For those who bottom-fished or held stocks last week, today’s rally is a well-deserved reward. Enjoying such surges embodies the core meaning of investing. 11

₿ Crypto & Philosophy

• Congratulations to $btc and $eth holders. Endorsing a volatility trading course as a form of long-termism, leveraging volatility to grow coin holdings, and a comprehensive approach to understanding risk. Avoid acting like Zhao Kuo (a historical figure known for poor strategy leading to defeat). 12

🛡️ Trading Discipline

• Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Take it slow. Opportunities are endless, but only if capital is preserved. Focus on singles, not homeruns, every trade. 16