đź’ˇ Semiconductor & AI Sector Insights

  • NVDA is catching up from market mispricing; other tech giants’ CapEx benefits finally rewarded with an 8% surge, nearing $185. The broader semiconductor sector, via SMH, jumped 5%. 2
  • Jensen Huang’s comments suggest the NVDA GPU depreciation overhang for AI utilities like NBIS, IREN, CIFR, and CRWV is fading. Hyperscaler CapEx and GPU demand are re-accelerating, signaling early innings of a massive industrial buildout. 7

📊 Technical Analysis & Market Signals

  • NVDA flashed a strong green candlestick, nearly erasing the past 4 days’ selloff, recapturing its 50dma on volume that dwarfed previous days. This is significant price action. 10
  • The DIA Dow Jones index has racked up numerous new ATHs since July 2025, remarkably without its Daily RSI ever hitting overbought levels. 8
  • A -18.4% drop in VIX while the S&P 500 hovers near all-time highs has occurred only 15 times before; historically, SPX was higher one month later in every single case. 17
  • HOOD’s 50% rip might be a headfake; a real bounce needs to test broken support levels. Meanwhile, META barely budged. 15

🌍 Macro & Commodity Trends

  • Recession calls seem out of sync with Mag7 companies pouring 2.1% of GDP into CapEx, alongside the U.S. government’s +6% deficit, expanding in H1. 3
  • For the first time in recorded history, there have been zero global gold discoveries in two consecutive years. This scarcity extends to most major metals, with few meaningful projects emerging. 6

đź’Š Healthcare & Biotech Outlook

  • FDA is cracking down on non-approved compounded GLP-1s, explicitly naming HIMS, signaling full enforcement including seizures and injunctions. 13
  • HIMS is a “disaster,” trading at $20 in after-hours following regulatory news. 14
  • A personal observation regarding GLP-1 insurance coverage shifting from Zepbound to fully covered Wegovy could be a bearish signal for LLY and bullish for NVO. 16

⛓️ Crypto Market Dynamics

  • BTC had a “dead cat bounce,” springing from $60k to nearly $72k, a 20% move. Expect significant resistance around $75k, possibly with a slight overshoot. 12
  • Bitcoin’s technicals are aligning: holding horizontal support, resting on the 200 Week SMA, showing signs of capitulation. 9

đź§  Investing Principles & Market Psychology

  • Social media’s brutal truth: market sentiment can flip from “ugly” to “missed the dip” in just 12 hours, with premature calls for bottoms in Stocks, Silver, Gold, and Crypto. 5
  • The crucial math of losses: a 20% decline requires a 25% gain to recover, 33% needs 50%, and a 50% loss demands a 100% rally to break even. 11

🚀 Stock Performance Insights

  • RKLB surged over 8% today, returning to its pre-Feb 5 levels, after a fleeting pre-market high of $61.23 yesterday. 1
  • IREN saw extreme volatility, dropping 35% before a subsequent 53% bounce. 4