📈 Market Outlook & Macro

  • The market breadth is stunning: NYSE recorded more new 52-week highs than any point since 2024, the NYSE Advance-Decline Line hit an all-time high, and both Dow Jones Industrial Avg and equally weighted S&P500 closed at fresh record highs. 4
  • $SPX is signaling structural hesitation with two weekly doji candles and long wicks on high volume, suggesting a big move is loading. Long straddles and strangles are cheap. 2
  • Mid-caps just closed at all-time highs after a year-plus correction, don’t miss the move. 19
  • A significant event is boosting the dollar, marking the most bullish period since Trump’s election. 5
  • Presidential statements are direct market signals: a positive economic outlook means staying invested, bullish on energy means buying Oil & Gas stocks, and focusing on rare earth implies buying those sectors. 13
  • Trump predicts the Dow Jones at 100,000 by term-end, noting it currently sits at 50,000. 7
  • $QQQ shows a “de ja vu roadmap,” implying a familiar pattern unfolding. 14

📊 Individual Stock & Sector Analysis

  • ServiceNow (NOW) isn’t getting much love, possibly because it’s grown too big. 1
  • $TGT is poised for a massive catch-up trade, sitting on a Forward P/E of 15 compared to $COST at 45 and $WMT at 44. Expect $150-$160 by EOY. 3
  • $AMZN looks ready for a bounce: RSI below 30 (last time was April 2025, marking lows), daily volume highest since October 2022 (also marking lows), and successfully holding $200, a psychological support. 6
  • $WMT’s parabolic chart defies explanation, especially with its Forward P/E double that of most Magnificent 7 stocks (excluding Tesla). 8
  • A “bloody week” for US stocks, with a sarcastic nod to $TSLA investors. 10
  • $UPS shows potential, similar to $TGT, with eyes on filling the $133-$134 gap next. 15
  • $NKE, like $UPS and $TGT, has a strong MOAT and is looking ready for a breakout. 16

🌐 Geopolitics & Regulatory Landscape

  • US-Iran negotiations in Oman are at a standstill, with only agreement to continue talks. Trump’s tactics on Iran are under scrutiny. 17
  • China’s crypto regulatory signals are mixed: eight ministries tighten controls, yet the CSRC greenlights offshore issuance of asset-backed security tokens by domestic entities. 12
  • The Yuan has hit another new multi-year high, signaling strength from China. 20

💡 Valuation & Investment Philosophy

  • The art and science of stock valuation is key for US equity investing, employing frameworks like “valuation kill, earnings kill, logic kill.” Technicals include static, trailing, dynamic, and forward P/E, alongside historical and industry comparisons. 18
  • Buying O’Reilly stock based on TikTok trends is highlighted as a questionable investment strategy, underscoring the need for diligence. 11

🚀 Crypto Market Dynamics

  • Bithumb’s accidental distribution of 620,000 Bitcoin (not 2,000) led to 1,788 coins sold within 35 minutes before recovery, contributing to Bitcoin’s drop to $60,000 and exposing systemic fragility. 9

🤖 Tech Innovation & AI Monetization

  • NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang praised META’s AI prowess. META’s AI-driven ad ranking generated ~4x more revenue impact than increasing ad load, with accelerated price per ad and impressions. This is true AI monetization. 21