📈 Market Trends & Cycles

  • Median stocks are quietly reaching new multi-year highs. 1
  • Historical $SPX seasonality from February into March shows a “Dip” in most years (2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2025), with exceptions in 2019 and 2024. 4
  • Silver, Bitcoin, and numerous individual stocks all saw 50%+ drawdowns from ATHs simultaneously last week, indicating wild volatility and suggesting a late cycle market phase. 5
  • In a true bear market, comparable to the dot-com bust or financial crisis, 80% of participants likely won’t survive. 10

💡 AI & Tech Sector Insights

  • During platform shifts like AI, application software faces an “indiscriminate reset” due to FCF modeling difficulty. This creates opportunities; I’ve been adding aggressively to AI security positions. 2
  • Post “SaaSpocalypse 2026”, Rule of 40 scores show: Unicorn (60%+) includes $PLTR; Elite (50-59%) includes $NOW, $CRWD, $PANW, $ADBE, $SNOW, $ZS; Great (40-49%) includes $TEAM, $DDOG, $MNDY, $CRM, $SHOP, $NET, $GTLB; Good (30-39%) includes $RBRK, $FIG, $HUBS. 3
  • Cathie Wood predicts Tesla could hit a $100 trillion valuation by 2030 via AI, robotics, and ecosystem integration; Elon Musk considers it “not impossible.” This highlights a significant re-evaluation of valuation scales. 11
  • $GOOGL, with $132B in net income, is converting its cash into the largest TPU footprint, giving it an AI competitive edge that rivals lack the luxury to match. 12

💰 Investment Strategy & Picks

  • Top 10 favorite names under $10B market cap include: $ONDS (drone connectivity), $CIFR (AI utility landlord), $JMIA (scaling logistics in Africa), $LMND (AI-native insurance), $DOCN (AI inference cloud), $CLPT (neurosurgery navigation). 7
  • I’ve shifted personal funds by closing a stock account and investing in Anthropic’s $350B round in January, despite high management fees. This move is a direct response to being “tired of this QQQ civil war.” 14

🚫 Market Warnings & Sentiment

  • “Prediction markets” are often glorified penny stocks, designed to profit those hyping them at the expense of others. 8
  • Market sentiment swung drastically in a short period, moving from “it’s over” on Feb 5th to “it was a joke” on Feb 6th. 9

₿ Crypto & Digital Assets

  • True $BTC bottoms typically form over several months, consolidating in a choppy, narrow range, rather than sharp V-shaped recoveries back to ATHs. Patience is key during this phase. 6

🏦 Institutional Activity & Stock Analysis

  • For $ONDS, Jane Street offloaded 41% of its holdings, interpreted as a positive sign that may reduce volatility. Meanwhile, Vanguard increased holdings by 18.8 million shares, and institutional investors collectively hold 123 million shares, with BlackRock, Morgan, Citadel, Vanguard, Goldman, and Hood River actively holding or increasing positions. 13