📉 Market Structure & Risk Insights

  • $S&P 500 correlation is breaking down; many names pushing new highs while others sink to new lows. This divergence, last observed in September 2000, serves as a market warning 引用[1].
  • Despite improving market breadth with more stocks hitting 52-week highs, the $SPX has gone nowhere for 3 months. This stagnation is due to large-cap tech holding a RECORD share of the S&P 500 index, requiring large-cap tech participation for the index to move 引用[2].
  • $IGV has dipped almost 20%. The market in 2026 exhibits a “$QQQ Civil War,” indicating a less favorable environment for retail investors. Buying and holding single names becomes increasingly challenging; it’s transitioning into an active trader’s market 引用[3].

🚀 Individual Stock Deep Dive

  • $MSFT is an underestimated mega-cap, having retested the long-term trendline channel, filled the May 2025 gap, and reached a 50% retracement. It presents a 30% discount opportunity 引用[4].
  • $CAVA shows signs of waking from the dead, with strong bullish momentum above 73 引用[5].
  • $VRT appears stable, while outlooks for $U and $UPST are not optimistic 引用[6].
  • $WULF demonstrates insane strength, marked by a compelling daily/weekly technical combination 引用[7].
  • $NCLH displays a promising weekly setup, following recent positive movements within the cruise liner sector 引用[8].
  • $KTOS Kratos Defense is set for a key event starting Feb 18. 12 vendors will produce 30k UAS units at a $5k ASP, delivered by July, signaling a significant catalyst 引用[9].
  • $EZPW EZCorp reported an impeccable quarter. The pawn demand environment remains highly favorable, with Q1 pawn loans outstanding (PLO) increasing +14% Y/Y to $314M. This counter-cyclical name excels despite broader job growth concerns 引用[10].

📊 Investor Sentiment Check

  • Investor bullishness is at near-historic levels. Bank of America’s Bull & Bear Indicator reached 9.4 points, the highest since February 2018. This gauge considers equity and bond flows, hedge fund and fund manager positioning, and market breadth 引用[11].

🤖 AI & Sector Impact

  • Selling off cybersecurity and edge stocks due to AI is a profound mispricing. These applications are set to become more critical with AI adoption. Names like $CRWD, $NET, $ZS, $RBRK are expected to benefit, and this sell-off will likely be seen as egregious in a year or two 引用[12].
  • $GOOGL earnings indicate that search is not breaking under AI, but rather bending in a favorable way, suggesting AI integration acts as a tailwind 引用[13].
  • Jensen Huang’s interview reveals important tells regarding $NVDA GPU depreciation overhangs on AI utilities, impacting investment theses for related companies like $NBIS 引用[14].

💰 Commodity Flows & Trends

  • Investors continue to pile into gold funds at a record pace. $GLD holdings stand at 34.9 million troy ounces, the highest since May 2022, marking an increase of +8 million troy ounces (+30%) since June 2024 引用[15].

🚨 Tech & Company Risks

  • $DASH is testing human-less grocery delivery. A critical question emerges: how many of these units will be involved in accidents? 引用[16].

🌍 Global Market Performance

  • European stocks are experiencing an incredible run. The Stoxx 600 index has gained for 7 consecutive months, marking the longest streak since 2013, the 2nd-best run this century, and one of the strongest in 40 years. During this period, the index rallied +14.4% 引用[17].