Key market movements: Bitcoin disproved year-end targets, Gold and Silver grabbed headlines, the initial AI boom sprinted harder than expected, the U.S. dollar saw one of its most violent reversals in decades, and software stocks hit oversold levels. 1
The US debt crisis is escalating: Interest payments on US public debt to overseas holders surged to a record $292 billion in Q3 2025, more than doubling since 2020, and now 6 times higher than before. 2
While the administration’s “productivity bet” is working for now, the ultimate challenge is avoiding future economic overheating. 3
The “hawkish incoming Fed chair” narrative is defunct; a Fed–Treasury accord will fundamentally reshape interest rates. Time to increase hard asset exposure. 5
The U.S. software developer job market over the last 5 years reflects normalization, not AI-driven job losses. Hiring surges in 2021 & 2022 were fueled by zero-rate capital and a “land grab” mentality. 6
Strong belief that the software sector has bottomed ($IGV). Sentiment is grim, but many stocks are testing major support. Focus on names that hold and rally. Demand is paramount. The Software ETF tested a 15-year trendline. 7
Hedge funds’ net exposure to software hit a record low of less than 3% as of Feb 3, a sharp drop from 18% in 2023. This contrasts with S&P software companies’ earnings, projected to rise 19% in 2026, up from 16% a few months prior. 8
Bitcoin and Ethereum tested long-term channels, with Bitcoin also retesting its 2021 highs. This pattern typically signals long-term bottoms, driven by ugly sentiment, major price support, and multiple technical level tests. 9
Both $BTC and $ETH are up around 20% from last week’s lows. 10
For new positions, prioritize stocks already post-earnings, like Microsoft, Amazon, Google. An excellent earnings report followed by a stock price drop often signals a prime buying opportunity. 11
Note that risk + rotation can shift rapidly. Avoid forcing trades in lagging or breaking down groups; substantial gains come from strong, leading sectors. 12
$HOOD is a compelling stock pick; the rebranding of its “Credit Card” app to “Banking” indicates a positive strategic pivot. 13
$ARM exhibits a clear breakout from its base, trading daily above its 10-21 and 50-day moving averages. 14