📈 Market Outlook & Strategy

  • Prediction markets consistently identify skilled participants, with some showing uncanny accuracy on events like the halftime show 1. Prediction markets themselves emerge as the ultimate winners in major events 7, and my polls frequently generate alpha 10.
  • For effective dip-buying, a key strategy involves reallocating from “defensive stocks/ETFs” like $SPLV, healthcare, or consumer staples, by selling these when tech growth stocks are discounted. This capital, alongside “big-cap foundational assets,” forms the primary funding for new entries 9.
  • Warsh becoming the new Fed chair would be a positive catalyst for KRE 19. Several developments present bullish signals for gold 20, with another clear positive catalyst noted 26.
  • Initiating a short-term bounce trade on IGV/MDB, though a later short entry is preferred, given a “guilty until proven innocent” thesis for the software sector 23.

💡 Industry & Sector Insights

  • Maintain skepticism on $COIN’s prospects, believing current sentiment is misplaced 5.
  • $WULF presents a compelling “Weekly Bullish Pennant” alongside “Relative strength during the Growth & Crypto Massacre,” setting the stage for significant upside 6.
  • The $BE CEO underscores natural gas as the “only scalable bridge” for the energy transition, marking its strategic importance 11.
  • Despite #EOSE’s 45% stock drop, institutional investors are accumulating, now holding approximately 170 million shares 13. Similarly, institutions are persistently adding to #ASTS, even as the stock hits new highs, with holdings exceeding 150 million shares and a significant long-to-short ratio of 644 to 14 15.
  • A recent Goldman Sachs report convincingly argues that server demand growth will offset any demand destruction in smartphones and PCs 14.
  • An alternative perspective on $MU’s potential in HBM4 supply is significantly more plausible than SemiAnalysis’s complete dismissal 22.

💻 AI & Tech Innovation

  • Seedance 2.0 (ByteDance) stands out as a game-changer in multimodal AI video generation, raising questions about the progress of xAI’s Imagine 16. Further evaluation confirms Seedance 2.0’s impressive output quality, producing realistic details like LeBron James’s movements, despite minor text deformations on billboards 27.
  • $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META, and $AMZN have collectively committed over $600B+ in 2026 CapEx, with a clear understanding of how these investments will flow through the AI stack 18.