geopolitics & Investment Policy

  • China’s regulators verbally advised large commercial banks to control US Treasury bond holdings, restricting new purchases and suggesting gradual reduction for high-holding banks. This aims to diversify risk, mitigating market volatility and concentration concerns 1.

Semiconductor Industry Outlook

  • Memory makers are pushing for shorter Long-Term Agreements (LTAs) and locking in “non-cancellable, non-returnable terms with no price negotiation” due to persistent supply shortages 2.
  • $MU trades lower as Samsung reportedly secured $NVDA approval for HBM4 supply for Rubin and may begin production this month. This raises fresh worries about Micron losing early market share in high-margin memory, with their HBM4 ramp-up not until mid-2026 3.
  • Micron’s situation regarding HBM4 supply appears more severe than previously understood 4.

Market Sentiment & Strategy

  • $GOOGL is now favored over $NVDA to close the year as the world’s most valuable company 5.
  • Invest within your circle of competence 6.
  • Recent market rotation and unwinding of popular trades are unlikely to trigger a broad selloff; a constructive outlook persists. The current environment echoes 2000, where a post-tech bubble burst rotation kept the S&P 500 flat for six months 7.
  • Short-term market views (e.g., September to February) can be misleading; extending the timeframe reveals cyclical performance among strong companies 8.
  • Many investors hold positions for less than ten months, reflecting a short-term market focus 9.
  • Dan Ives advises buying $CRM and $NOW, suggesting recent damage is done, and a bounce is imminent 10.
  • Retail investors are piling into precious metals, with $GLD attracting +$16 billion in inflows and $SLV +$4 billion over the last year 11.

Technical Analysis & Crypto Outlook

  • $BTC faces resistance at $70k-$72k. Bulls need to break this to retest $75k. Bears must push below $60k for a significant downturn 12.
  • $QQQ surged +4.3% overnight. $600 is a psychological mark. Potential downside to $590 if $600 breaks; if $610 holds with conviction, $619 (50dma) is the next target 13.

Healthcare Technology

  • $TMDX secured full FDA IDE approval for its OCS Heart ENHANCE trial, indicating progress in expanding its moat in organ transport and perfusion 14.