📈 Technical Analysis & Price Action

  • $MSFT daily chart shows a bounce off recent lows with a confirmed stick today. A small gap in the 422 area is the first resistance level on my radar. 1
  • $CEG daily chart shows follow-through from a confirmed reversal. Earnings are expected this month. 2
  • $HIMS is up +17% off its intraday lows. A close above $20 today or tomorrow would be highly constructive. 11
  • Market breadth is surging: 65.6% of S&P 500 stocks have outperformed the index over the last 3 months, the highest reading since late 2024. This marks the 5th-strongest market participation in 23 years, compared to a long-term average of ~50% and a 20-year low of 19%. 14
  • For anyone doubting technical analysis, the $MSFT chart perfectly demonstrates the phenomenon of gap filling. 16
  • $ARM updated chart shows a small overhead gap as the next level of interest. After 4 consecutive green days, some basing is likely needed soon, and I’m watching the gap area for this consolidation to begin. 17
  • $QQQ just filled the open gap down from 5 days ago. Gaps always tend to fill. 18
  • The NYSE Advance-Decline line continues to hit new all-time highs. Mathematically, this signifies more stocks advancing than declining, not fewer stocks participating. 21

🌐 Macro & Monetary Policy

  • Used car prices are surging again: Wholesale used vehicle prices rose +2.4% MoM and +2.4% YoY in January, reaching the highest since September 2023. This significantly exceeds the long-term average monthly decline of -0.2%. Non-EVs led the increase at +2.2% YoY, followed by luxury at +1.6%. 3
  • AI-related debt is nearly 7X oversubscribed, indicating that credit markets are comfortable with it, unlike the sentiment often seen on “fintwit.” 7
  • Questioning how a currency can be considered a “contrarian” play if it’s already one of the most shorted currencies globally. 12
  • The market is currently pricing in only two 25bp Fed rate cuts, which seems low given a scenario where a Trump administration might appoint a Fed chair inclined to aggressively cut rates. I’m betting on more aggressive cuts. 15

💡 Stock & Industry Analysis

  • $INTC is a leading company, and its stock performance clearly reflects this daily: it holds up during market chops, holds during market drops, and dips on bad news are bought. 5
  • Databricks is scaling like a platform, exiting Q4 with a $5.4B revenue run-rate, 65% YoY growth, and positive FCF. Notably, 80% of new databases on the platform are now built by AI agents, with AI revenue already at a $1.4B run-rate. The company is currently valued at $134B. 6
  • $ONDS subsidiary, 4M Defense, secured a $30M+ multi-year autonomous demining contract along the Israel–Syria border, marking one of Israel’s largest land-clearance efforts to date. 8
  • $PLTR is near its 50-week SMA for the first time since August 2024. Historically, reclaiming the 50-week SMA has often signaled a bottom. Palantir crushed earnings and is trading at a 40% discount from all-time highs; many are not yet paying attention. 10

🧠 Market Psychology & Trading Insights

  • A critical take on how traders often disguise significant losses as wins. For example, buying $HIMS at 50, 40, 35, 30 and averaging down, while the stock is now up 10% from the bottom, the overall trade remains 40-60% down. Expect this narrative to become prevalent. 4
  • Both $NBIS and $CRWV show an explosive setup, potentially delivering a year’s gain in a week. Mark my words. 9
  • Bitcoin is rebounding, but the question remains: is the crash truly over, or is this a trap? 13
  • The stock market is up today due to the “Sydney Effect,” confirming its influence. 19
  • Successfully executed “paydays” (quick profits) on $AVGO, $CEG, $CRWV, $HOOD, $OKLO, $SYM. These short-term gains help fund and settle into full swing trades, acknowledging the added risk from additional shares bought. 20
  • My posts are for educational purposes and reflect my personal trading actions and observations, not an endorsement for blind following. Always trade according to your own plan, charts, and style. 22