$SPY and $QQQ have been consolidating in historically tight ranges for 4-5 months, reflected by multi-year tight Bollinger Bands. A violent move is overdue. 4
$QQQ technicals show an overhead gap was missed by 5 pennies, with two notable downside gaps remaining (excluding after-hours movement). 18
Market sentiment has rapidly shifted from broad selling last week to aggressive buying, particularly in growth stocks. Don’t chase the rally; wait for a risk-manageable entry. 2
Skepticism surrounds 100-year bonds; risks are high. 6
$NOW, a software name, printed a bullish engulfing reversal today near the close. A clear risk setup for those with a defined plan. 3
$SYM’s 3-day run stalled at the 50/100-day moving averages. 5
$UPS continues to make new highs; tighter trailing stops are in place. 7
$ACM broke higher for a second day, emerging from a long base. 9
$CRDO pre-announced Q4 sales of $406M against a $340M estimate, a massive beat. This implies a strong read-through for $ALAB, as hyperscalers typically co-deploy Credo’s cables with Astera’s retimers and chips. 19
$lite’s CapEx model is favored, emphasizing data over market narratives. 22
US economic data is re-accelerating, yet the dollar struggles to sustain a countertrend rally despite “strong-dollar” policy talk. 14
The administration’s productivity strategy is currently yielding results, but the risk of eventual economic overheating remains a key concern. 20
The administration’s economic stance is shifting from “running it hot” to “mission overheat,” particularly in light of claims of 15% growth potential with certain Fed picks. 24
Big Tech (e.g., $AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META, $ORCL) is dramatically reallocating capital from buybacks to AI CapEx. Q4 2025 combined buybacks plunged to $12.6 billion, a -74% decline from a ~$48.0 billion peak, marking the lowest since Q1 2018. 23
UBS forecasts Amazon’s ($AMZN) AWS growth to accelerate to ~38% in 2026. This significant jump from 24% growth, alongside $200B in CapEx, underscores the impact of CapEx deployment. 27
Current strategy: avoid “green to red” trades. Watching for a multi-day tech bounce, then a potential retest of recent lows to establish swing trading setups. This scenario is conditional and requires confirmation. 10