📉 Macro & Consumer Health

  • Disappointing holiday retail sales paired with 2017-level consumer delinquencies paints a bleak picture for lower-income and younger Americans. 1

⚡ Market Dynamics & Sentiment

  • Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has gone nowhere since October. Meanwhile, Nasdaq 101–200 (QQQJ) quietly outperformed. Less Technology, more Industrials and Healthcare. Neither group has meaningful exposure to Energy, Materials, or Financials. 2
  • $SPY and $QQQ are coiling, tightening each day. Too much compression lately; a volcano is about to erupt. Which direction? 3
  • “Broadening” remains a pain trade; a basket of less-sexy stocks ($RSP) continues to beat $SPY. “Truck drivers are beating software engineers” now, and soon will beat chip makers. 4
  • Railroads ($UNP, $CP, $CSX, $CNI) offer overlooked value. People chase speculative assets like Bitcoin, ignoring reliable wealth generators. 5
  • $QQQ Daily is in chop chop no man’s land. Patience is paramount, only executing on the highest conviction setups. 6
  • $SCHW observation: stairs up, elevator down. 7

📈 Stock-Specific Analysis & Trading Ideas

  • Spotify ($SPOT) Q4 2025 earnings show strong growth: MAU 7.51亿 (+11%), paid subs +10%, revenue 45.31亿欧元 (+7%), gross margin 33.1%, operating profit 7.01亿欧元. After falling from 785 to 405, the stock looks to have bottomed. 8
  • $PLTR extended its Airbus partnership for 10 years in a $1B deal. While $100M per year is immaterial for a ~$340B company, this $1B is foundational for future AI monetization. 9
  • Tried $NFLX in 2026 and lost. Waiting for stronger confirmation before re-entering this “dumpster dive trade.” 10
  • Michael Burry’s long positions are a joke, but his shorts warrant attention. $PLTR shows a weekly H&S with a broken neckline; shorting it while longing IGV names like $MSFT, $ORCL, $MDB, $DOCN. If $PLTR reclaims $148.5, will flip long. 11
  • Considering shorting Procter & Gamble ($PG) due to OpenAI’s potential to disrupt traditional industries, exemplified by “MintGPT.” 12
  • $RDDT shows follow-through on a gap-up day. Thin zone to 160ish presents further upside. Watching for a move and sustained hold above the 10EMA. Avoid green-to-red. 13
  • Questioning the valuation discrepancy: $AMZN (14% revenue growth, 10% margins, 27x earnings) versus $COST (8% revenue growth, 3% margins, 47x earnings) and $WMT (6% revenue growth, 3% margins, 44x earnings). 14
  • $HIMS is experiencing an unprecedented down streak, dropping 17 of the last 18 weeks. 15

🚗 Product & Company Strategy

  • Ferrari’s first EV, “Luce,” will feature tactile switches and glass buttons, eschewing a full touchscreen experience. Designed by Jony Ive’s LoveFrom, this “Apple-esque” approach could prove detrimental to the brand. 16

🧠 Trading Psychology & Strategy

  • My biggest wins result from sizing with conviction while respecting rules, taking partial profits at pre-set targets, then stepping back to allow the trade to mature. 17