📉 Macro & Consumer Economy

  • A bleak picture emerges for lower-income and younger Americans as disappointing holiday retail sales coincide with consumer delinquencies hitting levels not seen since 2017 1.

📊 Market Structure & Technicals

  • $SPY and $QQQ are coiling, with Bollinger Bands narrowing daily, indicating extreme compression and an imminent “volcano eruption” move 11.
  • $QQQ has stalled since October. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 101–200 stocks (QQQJ), with more Industrials and Healthcare and less Technology, Energy, Materials, or Financials, have quietly outperformed 6.
  • The “Pain trade” continues to be “Broadening,” where less “sexy” stocks ($RSP) outperform $SPY. I foresee “truck drivers beating chip makers” next 13.
  • A stark contrast exists: thousands show up to lose money on Bitcoin discussions, yet only hundreds show interest in making money from “unsexy” Railroads ($UNP, $CP, $CSX, $CNI) 14.
  • $QQQ’s daily chart is stuck in “chop chop no mans land,” signaling a period for patience and only engaging with the highest-conviction setups 18.

📈 Specific Stock Analysis & Trade Setups

  • $SPOT saw an intraday surge over 19%, signaling it has likely bottomed out after a substantial drop from $785 to $405 2.
  • While $PLTR’s $1B, 10-year Airbus partnership might seem small for a ~$340B company, I view it as a foundational step for future AI monetization 3.
  • Taking another shot at a “dumpster dive trade” on $NFLX after a previous loss, waiting for stronger confirmation before a full commitment 4.
  • I am questioning the intraday drop in $SCHW, noting it coincides with $HOOD reporting earnings 7.
  • My observation on $SCHW is “stairs up, elevator down” for its recent price action 8.
  • I am shorting $PLTR due to a weekly Head & Shoulders pattern breakdown, while simultaneously longing IGV components like $MSFT, $ORCL, $MDB, $DOCN. I would flip long on $PLTR if it reclaims $148.5 9.
  • I am considering shorting Procter & Gamble ($PG), speculating that OpenAI might soon disrupt the toothpaste industry with “MintGPT” 10.
  • $RDDT shows follow-through on its gap-up day, with a thin zone up to $160 and potential for a move and hold above the 10-EMA 12.
  • A valuation puzzle exists when $AMZN (approx. 14% revenue growth, 10% margins, 27x earnings) is compared to $COST (8% growth, 3% margins, 47x earnings) and $WMT (6% growth, 3% margins, 44x earnings) 15.
  • $HIMS has endured an unprecedented losing streak, dropping in 17 out of the last 18 weeks—a severity I’ve personally never witnessed 17.

🚗 Industry & Company Outlook

  • Ferrari’s move to an EV called “Luce,” with interiors designed by Jony Ive’s LoveFrom prioritizing tactile switches, I believe signals the end for the brand 5.

🧠 Trading Psychology & Strategy

  • My biggest wins consistently stem from sizing positions with conviction while respecting personal rules, taking partial profits at pre-set targets, and then allowing the trade to play out 16.