📈 Market Dynamics

  • Emerging market currencies are hitting new highs, levels not seen since 2018. This includes specific markets like the Turkish Lira, Hungarian Forint, Malaysian Ringgit, and Indonesian Rupiah 5.
  • $BTC exhibits a reliable 4-year boom-bust-reboom cycle; such timeline predictability is absent in equities for planning and flushing euphoria 13.
  • Futures markets are going wild 23.
  • Market remains perfectly balanced for now 29.

🌍 Macro & Policy Outlook

  • January jobs report came in hot: Non-farm payrolls +130,000 (est. 55,000), unemployment rate fell to 4.3% (est. 4.4%). This strength validates continued Fed inaction 16.
  • Robust January jobs numbers, with Nonfarm Payrolls at 130K (exp. 65K) and unemployment at 4.3% (exp. 4.4%), refute recession narratives 17.
  • January’s jobs print—Nonfarm Payrolls +130K (est. +65K), unemployment 4.3% (est. 4.4%), Avg hourly earnings +0.4% MoM (est. 0.3%)—is robust enough to quash recession fears 20.
  • March FOMC rate cut odds plunged to 13%, a move likely to displease political figures 21.

💡 Investment Strategy & Trends

  • Numerous stocks have experienced unwarranted sell-offs, mistakenly grouped with software peers 6.
  • Although not a top long-term performer, $JEPI offers robust defensive qualities 10.
  • Hedge funds are aggressively overweighting healthcare stocks, now at a 5-year peak—outperforming benchmarks by 10% and the S&P500 by 12%. This flags defensive rotation and flight to safety 22.

🏢 Company Deep Dive

  • $HOOD experienced its first sequential Asset Under Custody (AUC) decline in over two years, a QoQ dip unseen since Sep ‘23 8.
  • $HOOD plummeted 9% pre-market post-earnings. Concerns mount over leadership’s push to cross-sell prediction market users into retirement accounts; gambling and retirement/savings are incompatible ventures 9.
  • $AEHR secured a Sonoma system order from a hyperscaler, with shipments for AI package burn-in beginning this summer. Management anticipates a substantial ramp in 2H 2026 and throughout 2027, driven by next-gen AI processors 14.
  • Headlines for Robinhood are confirming the downtrend, reinforcing negative sentiment 25.
  • $TSM hit new all-time highs, outperforming $NVDA by 1500bps year-to-date 26.
  • $DUOL, a former Wall Street darling, cratered 80% from its ATHs, now trading below IPO price. Technology moves fast; no one wants to touch it 30.

🤖 Tech & AI Reflections

  • The paradox of AI development: it’s now displacing the very creators who foresaw its impact on others’ jobs 7.