📈 Market Macro & Trends

🇺🇸 Odds of a US government shutdown in 3 days surged to a new high of 75%, indicating shutdowns are becoming a regular event. 2
A significant shift in market leadership is unfolding, highlighting a clear rotation in stocks compared to the past two years. 3
Delayed rate cut expectations are outweighing positive labor data; a tight market demands tangible catalysts rather than mere confidence boosts. 13
US equity turnover surged in January, with average daily volume jumping +50% YoY to a record $1.03 trillion. Over 19 billion shares were traded daily on average, marking the 2nd-highest record, with 14 out of 20 trading sessions exceeding 18 billion shares. 16

🚀 Company Specifics & Sectors

Robinhood ($HOOD) leveraged its attention monetization power, evidenced by its new ~$300M run-rate prediction markets business in its first year. 1
Micron ($MU) defied bear expectations by initiating HBM4 customer shipments a quarter early and achieving high-volume production for AI and HPC workloads, signaling strong execution. 6
GlobalFoundries’ 4Q25 results showed revenue up 8% q/q (flat y/y) to $1.83B with a 29% GM. Auto and Comms segments grew y/y, while mobile and IoT declined. The company projects 85% utilization in 2025, with $722M capex (11% intensity), rising to 15-20% capex intensity in 2026, aiming for $1B SiPho revenue by 2028. 17
A notable trend of departures, including co-founders, is observed among xAI personnel. 19

$HIMS has been in a sustained downtrend, marking its 9th consecutive day of declines. 4
$ASTS is poised for a breakout; a daily close above 103 could ignite a significant rally, squeezing short positions. 5
Markets rapidly reversed from green to red, indicating a swift gap fill from the morning’s open. 8
Positioned net short $IGV / $PLTR as a February hedge, after closing all long positions. This move anticipates a potential market reset. 10
The Russell 2000 ($IWM) experienced relentless selling pressure, with no 5-minute green candle observed in the first 55 minutes of trading. 12
With President’s Day next Monday, the market will be closed for a 3-day weekend. Bulls often aim to close on a strong note ahead of such breaks. 15
$AAPL is nearing all-time highs, now only 3% shy of its peak. 18

Covered Call ETFs, including established funds like $XYLD and $QYLD from Global X, and newer offerings like YMAX from Yieldmax, generally underperform the broader market in the long run. 11
Investor conviction in a stock, like $HOOD, often deepens with repeated buying into declines, leading to “bag holding” where belief is forged from being heavily underwater. 14

Accumulate 1 $BTC or its equivalent in $IBIT shares and hold for 5-10 years. This conviction play acknowledges the binary outcome but suggests potential upside. 7
The 2018 crypto derivatives market lacked robust risk controls like strict position limits, auto-deleveraging (ADL), or mark price mechanisms, allowing single large positions to destabilize the entire market. Subsequent exchange iterations quickly introduced improved risk management. 9