📈 Market Trends & Technicals

  • $AVGO faces a critical test at its 50dma; what was support now acts as resistance. Expect a decisive move 3.
  • $GLD eyes a potential 6% drop. After a 50% retracement from a blow-off top, failure at the orange line could lead to a retest of the blue trendline 29.
  • Tech stocks show “psychotic” behavior: $GOOG V-reversed post-earnings then inexplicably approached a “killing line”. $MSFT, strong from April to August 2025, suddenly dropped sharply back to April levels, signaling market irrationality 6.

🌍 Macro & Geopolitical Shifts

  • The Brazil ETF bottomed in January 2025, precisely when the US Dollar Index peaked. This exact correlation suggests more than coincidence 4.
  • Trump and Xi’s potential tariff rollback for up to a year challenges the “decoupling” narrative 5.
  • China’s US asset holdings (Treasuries, stocks, bonds) are declining, now at $1.56 trillion, a near 14-year low, indicating a significant shift in financial geopolitics 20.

🤖 AI & Tech Sector Insights

  • $PLTR is uniquely positioned to become more crucial in an agentic AI world. Its fundamental problem-solving value endures despite valuation debates 9.
  • If Micron’s HBM4 claims are true, Samsung’s 4nm + 1cnm strategy for memory looks like a misstep, implying Micron could achieve a significantly lower cost structure 10.
  • AI disruption risk is actively pricing into high yield and leveraged loan tech spreads. UBS expects this to intensify through 2026–early 2027, with greater impact in the US 23.
  • The EU’s Anti-Drone Action Plan, aimed at consolidating procurement, promises substantial benefits for the Ondas ($ONDS) and Heidelberger Druckmaschinen partnership 30.
  • Public distaste for AI works stems from their monotonous “AI-ish” feel, not AI itself. The core lies in human story, taste, and creativity; AI is merely a tool 27.

📊 Market Structure & Strategy

  • 0DTE options now command record daily volumes: ~78% for Nasdaq 100 (+23 points since 2024) and ~65% for S&P 500 (up from ~50% in January 2024). This structural market shift is significant 8.
  • Covered Call ETFs like Global X’s XYLD and QYLD often struggle to beat the broader market long-term, a valid point for investors to consider 18.