📉 Market Outlook & Sentiment

  • A specific chart (implied) indicates the most bearish sentiment currently in the market 7.
  • The market is stuck; topping is a drawn-out process 10.
  • The 2026 outlook is grim: Nasdaq is falling, AI stocks are weak, US Dollar is tanking, software companies are finished, Silver and Gold are crashing, Bitcoin is targeting $10k, and emerging markets are overstretched 14.
  • Current market weakness is superficial; a healthy 5% pullback for $SPY is needed 25.
  • $TLT is forecast for its first positive year since 2020, targeting $100 within months 30.

🚀 Sector & Stock Specifics

  • Software stocks are mirroring the performance of banks in 2008 5.
  • $GOOGL’s new Gemini “Deep Think” could embed Google directly into the engineering workflow, turning sketches into 3D-printable designs 19.
  • Uncertainty around $APP’s business model (gaming ad network vs. MAX discovery infrastructure) is causing pressure; the latter implies a platform narrative, the former margin compression 26.

📊 Technical Insights & Strategy

  • $GLD and $SLV have clawed back half and almost half of last week’s losses, respectively 16.
  • $BTC may find a key level at the “purple box,” marking a potential turning point 17.
  • $SPX 7,000 acts as a persistent resistance level 20.
  • $SCHW staged a strong rebound off its 200-day moving average, despite briefly breaking below it 21.

🔗 Industry Dynamics & Macro Connections

  • Kioxia data points to NAND price hikes, driven by HDD shortages creating substitution effects in the “DC/Enterprise” sector, amplified by AI’s impact on storage 28.
  • A bullish Kioxia outlook could cascade into a bearish catalyst for $AAPL, leading to broader $ES/$NQ sell-offs via CTA/vol control, further intensified by CPI hedge flows 29.

⚠️ Risk Management & Market Outlook

  • With analysts like Mark Newton and Tom Lee predicting a 15-20% market pullback, smart money is deleveraging, hedging, raising cash, and derisking from high-beta assets 27.

🧠 Trading & Analysis Philosophy

  • Pure chartists focus solely on technical analysis, excluding fundamental analysis, macroeconomics, and option flows. Combining these approaches is recommended for a holistic view 24.