geopolitics & Energy Market Impact

  • Russian oil rejoining the dollar system would unleash VST, SMR-relevant crude and gas, unleashing a massive supply shock on global energy markets mid-transition. 引用[1]

⛏️ Commodities & Tariffs

  • Comex copper inventory spiked to 590,000 short tons in early 2026—a 30-year high. Global traders orchestrated a “copper migration” in late 2025, shifting stockpiles from Asia/LME to US Comex, front-running anticipated 15%-30% US import tariffs by mid-2026. 引用[2]

📊 Market Sentiment & Cycles

  • SaaS investors likely cycle between Anger and Depression. 引用[3]
  • Markets don’t often run back-to-back $VIX crushes (-20% last Friday). 引用[4]
  • The market’s CPI predictability is questionable; it’s a “can’t predict inflation” scenario. $SPY implied move for CPI day is ~7.47 pts or -/+ 1.1%. 引用[5]
  • The market can present a sense of impending doom (Hindenburg Omen triggered 4 times in 3 weeks). 引用[6]
  • Observing $SPY’s recent pattern of 3 red, 1 green, 3 red, 2 green, 3 red days, questioning if tomorrow will be green, while acknowledging the humor in finding “useless patterns.” 引用[7]
  • Expect commentary during market drops stating “whenever the market drops X% and X stocks are down, six months later it’s higher 95% of the time,” a common but sometimes misleading market truism. 引用[8]

📈 Stock Specific Insights & Investment Strategy

  • $RKLB and $PL are trading below levels when significant contracts were won ($800M defense for RKLB, Swedish Army for PL). These 35%+ drawdowns are opportunities, not reasons for panic. 引用[9]
  • $RIVN at low-teens now could be a missed opportunity, with the R2 potentially becoming a hot-selling electric SUV a year from now. 引用[10]
  • $RKLB is emerging as a go-to launch partner for the U.S. military’s next-gen weapons testing, indicated by its fourth hypersonic test launch for the Pentagon in under six months. 引用[11]
  • AI is seen as a productivity improvement, not a disruption, for Jag (presumably referring to Jaguar Analytics’s field or business). 引用[12]
  • A crowdsourced short sentiment for $CVNA in 2026 resulted in a -33% drop from ATH peak to today’s trough, proving the crowd can have “alpha.” 引用[13]
  • Beware of following influencers; a large following doesn’t equate to being the “best trader in the world,” as exemplified by a bad $HIMS position. 引用[14]
  • Palantir CEO Alex Karp’s quip about Michael Burry shorting PLTR and NVDA underscores market duality: profits exist for both bulls and bears. 引用[15]