Dot-com era predictions that the internet would wipe out newspapers, travel agents, banks, and retail didn’t materialize; instead, these industries adapted and persisted 1.
The market pullback was signaled by mid-term seasonality bringing chop and rangebound action, alongside an RSI negative divergence2.
Despite widespread panic, I expect $SPY to rally and break out to new 52-week highs, driven by recent NFP +130k (vs +65k est) and CPI 2.4% (vs 2.5% est), indicating a “Goldilocks” scenario 3.
For serious long-term investing, PE ratio is crucial; it shouldn’t be the only metric, but it cannot be ignored, unlike in meme/crypto trading 4.
A prediction of Microsoft dropping 50% from $400 to $210 implies a market-wide 50% crash (given Microsoft’s beta of ~1), which historically only occurs during major crises like 2008 or 19295.
“FinX gurus” claiming to have called the top, predicted the pullback, and dodged selling are exhibiting self-congratulatory posturing 6.
Growth investing potentially peaked with the pandemic; Russell’s pure indices suggest the 2023 peak in pure growth/pure value did not surpass the 2020 peak 7.
Following today’s CPI report, there’s a 50/50 market probability for either 2 or 3 Fed rate cuts by year-end 8.
January’s overall CPI year-over-year at 2.4% (expected 2.5%) and core CPI at 2.5% (in line with expectations) counter recent “second inflation wave” fears, indicating price pressure is under control 9.
$XLP is up 17% in the past 40 days, yet software and MAG7 stocks look weak, questioning where current investment value lies 10.
$ONDS secured a new multi-million-dollar European order for its Iron Drone Raider system, signifying repeat purchasing and increasing EU & NATO demand for autonomous counter-drone defense 11.
2026 is shaping up to be an inflection year for $IREN12.
$META retraced from $744 to $645, but with Bill Ackman now onboard, the name remains attractive 13.
$AMZN stock has been stagnant at $200 for 16 months14.
$RIVN guided 22,000+ R2 deliveries, significantly surpassing analyst models of 13,400. With R2 shipping in Q2 and Autonomy+, this could be a “Model 3 moment” with FSD built-in, potentially pushing the stock to $4015.
After 3 years of problems not causing significant knock-on effects, the market has finally started to price in reality “immediately and violently,” using new narratives as a justification 16.