🔮 Market Outlook & Macro

  • Market didn’t deliver the expected bounce into the three-day weekend. 2
  • While CPI appears benign, the widening spread between CPI and PPI since October is a critical inflation signal for stocks, potentially explaining the peak in growth stocks and shift to value since then. 5
  • The S&P 500 barely made new highs, with a potential right shoulder forming. A single headline could trigger a fast, painful drop, risking those overexposed. 11
  • Today’s choppiness in $QQQ and $SPY reflects a tug-of-war between short covering bounces and cautious sellers ahead of a 3-day weekend. Implied Volatility (IV) remains heavy post-CPI, indicating lingering fear. 17
  • The synchronized rise of Crypto and Gold suggests renewed cautious optimism. 18

📊 Market Breadth & Concentration

  • Despite widespread negativity, $RSP (S&P 493) is hitting new 52-week highs, indicating a healthy market “broadening” beyond the Mag-8 that’s trapping many. 8
  • The #SPX is now extremely dispersed, shifting from previous ultra-high concentration in mega-caps to an opposite extreme of broadening, evident as $RSP consistently hits new highs. 21

💡 Sector & Stock-Specific Analysis

  • Nasdaq is down 6% in two weeks, prompting a rotation into Consumer Defensive and Healthcare sectors. 3
  • Cybersecurity stocks like $PANW, $NET, and $CRWD are poised for a rip higher, with the market likely to overlook previous AI disruption fears. 4
  • $HIMS surged +6%, confirming a winning play. 6
  • $XLU is showing strong momentum. 12
  • $NBIS is flying, recapturing the $100 level today. 13
  • Focus on companies with limited capital expenditure (capex) that can capitalize on AI or data center growth. Alternatively, consider firms with strong cash flow, even with higher capex, that can still deliver shareholder returns. 16
  • $AMZN is set for its longest losing streak in approximately 20 years. 19
  • Missed the sharp drops in $BMNR (-87%) and $HIMS (-76%). 20
  • Major tech stocks are seeing significant pullbacks from All-Time Highs (ATHs): $GOOG from $350 to $303; $AAPL from $288 to $258; $NVDA from $212 to $182; $MSFT from $555 to $398; $META from $796 to $634; $TSLA from $499 to $410; $AMZN from $258 to $197. 23

📈 Trading Insights & Technicals

  • The $QQQ $600 level is a critical technical threshold. 7
  • $HOOD is seeing short-selling activity. 9
  • 2026 has been a hit-or-miss market, making longer holds brutal. Success comes from fewer, higher-quality ideas and selective themes. This week saw gains like $WULF +24%, $CIFR +10%, $GEV +25%, $HWM +20%, and $VNET +20%. 22
  • $PLTR shows an RSI divergence; reclaiming 136 would be a significant win for bulls. 24

🌍 Global Markets & Geopolitics

  • Chinese concept stocks face dual headwinds: recent listing of companies assisting the military and new internet platform anti-monopoly compliance guidelines. 1
  • Among current crypto developments, one particular aspect stands out as most intriguing. 14
  • South Korean equity funds saw record inflows last week, with +$5.2 billion, following +$3.5 billion and +$1.7 billion in prior weeks, pushing the 4-week moving average of inflows to an all-time high. 15